Research Based On The Export Structures Optimization Of Agricultural Products In Shandong Province

Shandong Province agricultural products export scale has been expanding rapidly in recent years. However, with the changing in the international situation and the deteriorating trade environment, export of agricultural products of Shandong, also exposed more and more problems. The most important problem is the problem of agricultural products export structure of the agricultural products in Shandong Province, the export product structure and market structure concentration degree is higher, and the product structure in traditional staple agricultural product competitiveness gradually decrease, the degree of processing of products is low, and the international competitiveness has gradually decreased. Although the market structure develop emerging markets, the market diversification trend is still not very obvious,which occupies in the main market share is still not high, are easily influenced by the factors in the international market fluctuations. This paper will be based on the current situation of agricultural products export of Shandong Province, then use the export concentration index(HH index), Spielman’s rank correlation coefficient(R index) and the income structure change index(BSCI index) of multiple index analysis method, to analysis the Shandong Province agricultural product export structure rationality.Furthermore, through the construction of agricultural products export structure index, selects 6 indicators may affect the Shandong Province agricultural product export structure, respectively, the total output value of agriculture, said the importing country’s per capita GDP, Shandong province population scale,population scale, the importing country of Shandong province with the importing country’s distance and the level of RMB exchange rate. Then build the multiple linear regression model of factors affect the structure of exports of agricultural products in Shandong province, before we start the multiple linear regression, by using ADF test, cointegration test and Granger causality test methods to test the causal relationships between variables, test results show that,the agricultural product export structure and said the total agricultural output the output value,the importing country’s per capita GDP, Shandong province population scale, population scale,the importing country of Shandong province with the importing country’s distance and the RMB exchange rate level of each variable between unidirectional causality exists, to carry on the multiple linear regression is feasible. Finally, the empirical results show, the influence of gross domestic product of Shandong Province, agricultural production target market country’s GDP and the distance factor of Shandong Province agricultural product structure index change is the most significant, and the total agricultural output value of Shandong province and the country of destination of GDP on the export structure change has a positive impact,negative distance factor to influence.