The Safety Analysis And Optimization Of The Structure Of China’s Crude Oil Import Sources

Petroleum is the basis of the development of industrial economy, and it affects the lifeblood of the development of national economy, which is also one of the important elements related closely to the national security. Whether it can be guaranteed to get enough petroleum stably is directly related to a country’s political security, economic security and military security. In recent years, Chinese economy has developed rapidly,and the living standards of Chinese people have been promoted enormously, while, all of which rely on the huge energy consumption; petroleum is one of the leading energies.Confronted with such huge demand for Petroleum, we have to realize the fact that the ability of domestic Petroleum supply is seriously deficient, and the import of crude oil is one of the ways to solve the imbalance of supply and demand. While the stead rise of the imported crude oil, results in increasing external dependency degree, especially to the Middle East and some African countries, which decreases the safety of Chinese crude oil import, so that the research of security degree of crude oil import has been more and more important.This paper mainly studies the safety degree of sources of Chinese crude oil import,and puts forward improved schemes of the structure of import sources, which possesses important theoretical meaning and realistic meaning. The analysis objects are 13 main countries of Chinese crude oil import in 2012,firstly,it studies different safety levels of these different countries, structuring appraising system from five aspects of resource、politics、 economy、distance and price. The analysis indicators of resource factor are oil reserve-production ratio and net oil export capacity of exporting countries; the analysis indicators of economy factor are absolute economic influence and relative economic influence; the analysis indicator of distance factor is the risk trade route; the analysis indicators of politics factor are the stability degree of foreign relations and the domestic political risk of exporting countries; the analysis indicator of price factor is residual variance of importing prices. It quantitatively analyses the levels of safety of these 13 countries with entropy value method, and it reaches the conclusion that resource factor isthe most important factor affecting the safety degrees. Secondly, it quantitatively researches non-systematic risk of the structure of crude oil import based on the improved portfolio model and multiple sources idea. The non-systematic risk involves the import shares and risk weights of different sources、variance of price error term of sources and the correlation coefficient of prices between different sources. It decreases the non-systematic risk of crude oil import structure, and promotes the safety degree,realizing the optimization of the structure. Finally, it puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of resource、politics、economy、distance、price and the transfer of crude oil between sources respectively to improve the security of Chinese crude oil import.