Study Of China's Crude Oil Import Security System

With the sustainable development of national economy, the demand for crude oil in our country demonstrates the situation of fast growth. Now that the output of crude oil in our country can hardly meet the increasing demand, the enormous gap can only be filled up through import. The places where our country imports crude oil are the Middle East, Africa, America, Southeast Asia and so on. The distance between the producing area and the consuming area determines that the main way by which our country imports crude oil remains the marine transportation in the future. Correspondingly, the safety problem of importing crude oil by sea arose. The appearance of the problem concerns the safety of national economy directly. However, there hasn't been a feasible method to solve the problem until now. In view of the situation described above, this dissertation put forward that a safety evaluation system for importing crude oil by sea should be established in order to find the initiation source of the question, recognize the seriousness of the recent problem and propose the solution and the direction to work forward in the future.This dissertation is divided into seven chapters to research and discuss the safety evaluation system of our country for importing crude oil by sea.Chapter One finds out the factors which affect the safety of importing crude oil by sea of our country, based on the adequate investigation and analysis of the domestic and international current situation of the crude oil, shipping capacities, ports of loading and discharging and the lines of imports and exports. And this establishes the foundation of building the indicator system. According to the relevant historical data and the quantitative method for economic forecasting, a statistic software EVIEWS is used to forecast the import quantum of crude oil of our country, and summarize the overall situation of the imported crude oil transporting market of our country. Chapter Two introduces the theoretical foundation of the dissertation and annotates the conception of the safety of importing crude oil and the safety of importing crude oil by sea which makes clear the content of the dissertation. Chapter Three confirms the affecting factors, and analyses each factor to find out the relevant sub-factors. Chapter Four builds the evaluation indicator system according to the indicator system establishing principle and the confirmed affecting factor and explains each indicator. Chapter Five uses the cluster analysis mathematics method for the first time to cluster together the aspects such as investment, effect of inside and effect of outside. Chapter Six adopts the AHP—Fuzzy synthetical evaluation method to build the synthetical evaluation model and validate the validity of the evaluation result in order to reach the reasonable and accurate solution. Finally, this dissertation gives the suggestion to improve the safety of importing crude oil of our country , in the hope of offering reference and guidance for the transporting enterprises which import crude oil and the state government in the respect of the problem...