S Project Risk Assessment Based On Bayesian Network

With the rapid development of electronic information technology, kinds of information system are applied in enterprise management. The risk in the process of project implementation is highlighted. This thesis bases on a large electronic institute of management information system of implementation of the component, then identify, evaluates, control the risk of project risk.The project studied in this thesis has various types of participants including owner, designers, supervisors, data engineers and so on, and there are many factors may affecting the project. In this thesis, we integrate historical analysis, brain-storming, survey methods to identify all of the risks may occur in the whole life cycle of the project, and we get the distribution of each risk by a thorough investigation on 50 research project participants, then use the risk level matrix to rank the risks, then work out the risk list. Because the lack of historical data and difficult to be collected, we use Bayesian network methods to study the key quality risk factors of S project, this thesis also set up a Bayesian belief network model in Bayesian analysis software GeNIe and through the parameter learning and other Bayesian analysis we find the key risks. As response to the key risk factors, this thesis gives suitable control measures. All of these measures are adopted in S project and achieve good results.