Research On Service Risk Assessment Of Express Delivery Enterprises Based On BN-FCM

With the rapid development of China’s express delivery industry,express delivery services have been deeply integrated into people’s daily lives and various industries.However,with the surge in business volume of express delivery companies,a large number of potential service risk accidents are inevitably brought about.Once a major service failure or quality problem occurs,it will not only cause losses and complaints to the recipients,but also have a greater impact on the brand image and social credibility of the express delivery companies.In recent years,consumers’ service awareness and experience requirements have been increasing.If express delivery companies want to develop healthily and sustainably,it is extremely important to study the service risks faced by enterprises and formulate scientific risk management countermeasures on this basis.On the basis of absorbing and inheriting the research of predecessors,this article first identifies the potential risk factors in each link through the service process of express delivery companies,and screens the risk factors based on high-frequency vocabulary related to express delivery services in online reviews,and further constructs an express service risk index system for express delivery companies.Secondly,it innovatively adopts the Bayesian network and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the service risks of express delivery companies.The Bayesian network model is used to calculate the probability of risk occurrence and determine the probability level.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is used to determine the risk loss level.Then,the risk level is determined based on the ALARP risk assessment matrix.Finally,Zhongtong Express is taken as an example for applied research.The results show that the service risk level of Zhongtong Express is level IV,at the upper limit of ALARP,which is a high risk level.It indicates that the service risks of the enterprise need to be controlled in time.In addition,cargo risk has the highest risk level in Zhongtong Express service risk,followed by enterprise operation and management risks,personnel risks and technical risks.Based on the above evaluation results,targeted risk prevention and control measures are proposed for different levels of risk factors.The research on the service risks of express delivery companies in this paper not only provides theoretical basis and empirical reference,but also provides reference for follow-up research in methods and applications.It can also help express delivery companies understand the sources of risks and the current risk conditions,and prevent risks from the source in a targeted manner to improve the service quality of enterprises.