Technological Trajectory Identification And Evaluation Research Based On Patent Citation Network

With the increasing important role of technological innovation and technological competition advantage between countries or enterprises, how to identificate and evaluate accurately about technological trajectory has gradually become the hot research topick in recent years. It has important theoretical significance on the research of the inherent law of the development of technology, technical opportunity discovery, technology trends forecasting. And also has important practical significance on the science and technology policy making and decision-making of the Science and Technology Management Department.In this paper, a model of dynamic technological trajectory identification and evaluation based on the patent citation network has been constructed. It consists of three parts:(1)Construct patent citation network.(2)Identificate and generate dynamic technological trajectory.(3)Quantitatively evaluate the dynamic technological trajectory.Then, take empirical research with the field of NEDD to test the model. At last, this article get the dynamic technological trajectory of the NEDD in different stage; analyze the technological development law and trend; evaluate the technical influence and technological innovation of technological trajectory of NEDD.This article introduces the dynamic analysis method into technological trajectory identification. And creatively use structural holes theory method to take quantitative evaluation of the dynamic technological trajectory identification. On one hand, it enriches and improves the method of technological trajectory identification and evaluation, on the other hand, it also extends the application range of the structural hole theory. And also can provide reference for scientific and technological management and decision-making.