China’s Main Energy Price Volatility Risk Assessment

Energy is the material basis for the basis production activities, the human society is the strategic resources of economic development and power. At this stage, due to affected by supply and demand factors, economic factors, cost factors determine the effect of factors and natural disasters, emergencies, national policies and uncertain factors, the market energy price has been fluctuating state. As the exhaustible resources, coal and oil prices overall rise is inevitable, only effective alternative forms of energy such as natural gas, clean energy, this situation will gradually change. On the current situation in China, fluctuations in coal prices for China’s economic development will have a substantial impact, but effects of oil price fluctuation will become more and more, if new energy technology has been a breakthrough, China may not have to experience of developed nations in history by the influence of oil price situation. It is because of the current tough environment, the risk of market fluctuations in energy prices and evaluation is very important to avoid.This paper in our country for consumption in the proportion of the largest three energy prices: coal, oil, and natural gas as the research object, by using the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the risk assessment of the main energy price fluctuation in China is carried out. we. Firstly, this paper introduces the theories of China’s major energy prices, mainly including the theory of energy value, the definition of main energy; the theory of risk assessment and ARMA model prediction, laying a theoretical foundation for establishing the evaluation index system of risk. Secondly, combined with the fluctuation of energy price in our country and the formation mechanism, prediction of energy price trend in 2016 of the year, so as to provide the basis for the formulation of strategies to avoid risks. Then, the qualitative analysis of influencing factors on the price of primary energy, construction principle of the evaluation index system is established by the energy price risk index,including 4 indexes and 12 level two indexes. On the basis of relevant research results,expert scoring and questionnaire survey, using membership function selection for the comprehensive evaluation of energy price volatility risk.In conclusion, the main risk of energy price market in China is "general",influence factors of supply and demand of energy prices on the biggest market,uncertain factors affecting second degree. The supply and demand factors, supply and demand of energy ratio is the main factor, and uncertain factors, the national policy is the main factor. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, put forward the corresponding risk avoidance strategies, to provide reference for the sound development of the energy market.