Analysis Of The Relationship Between The Coal Consumption Growth And Economic Growth And Prediction

Economic growth and energy consumption growth are inseparable, energy consumption growth driven economic growth. By contrast, energy consumption growth promotes economic growth, the two complement each other. From the analysis of energy storage and consumption structure in our country, more than 90% of fossil energy sources store in the form of coal energy, which lead that mainly energy consumption is coal consumption in China. From coal consumption accounts for the total energy consumption structure over the past year in China, coal energy consumption captured about 70% in long term. The coal makes irreplaceable contribution to stimulating economic growth, the shortage and surplus of coal supply will seriously interfere with the normal operation of the national economy. Accurate prediction of coal consumption in future in China is of great significance to the reasonable planning of China’s coal production and production capacity.First of all, the thesis makes a comparative ranking study between China and word energy power of storage amount of the coal, oil and natural gas and the total storage and consumption amount of China’s three major fossil energy in the world, which focus on China’s coal storage and consumption. Secondly,analyze China’s GDP from 1980 to 2014, the growth rate of GDP, the proportion of the three major industries in the national economy in China, the production and consumption of total energy, production growth rate and consumption growth rate of total energy, the proportion of three major fossil enery in total energy production and consumption. Finally, according to the unique perspective of coal and economic relation, economic indicators of coal energy are analyzed such as coal consumption, unit GDP, elastic coefficient of coal energy production, elasticity coefficient of coal energy consumption, and these economic indicators with GDP data of the top 10 countries are compared.According to above analysis foundation, the paper uses excel software to analyze the correlation coefficient of coal consumption growth and GDP growth rate, which conclude that the correlation coefficient between the two is highly correlated. Establish the linear regression equation between the growth of coal consumption and economic growth according to a linear regression prediction method. Then forecast the coal consumption from 2015 to 2020 in China under the situation of the national economic growth rate of 6.5% ~ 7.0%. The results show that: coal consumption will keep increasing at the rate of 1.3% ~ 0.7%, the standard coal consumption is 29.3 to 30.4 hundred million tons. According to the calculation of standard coal converted into raw coal coefficient, raw coal consumption is 41.0 to 42.6 hundred million tons. It is suggested that the reasonable output of coal should be controlled below 40 hundred million tons for raw coal in 2020, with imported coal making up the rest. According to the Coal Industry Association Statistics show that the relevant data, China’s coal production capacity is about 57 hundred million tons in 2015. What is appropriate to remove excess of capacity coal exactly, there is no unified viewpoint for coal industry. The paper suggests that China’s coal production capacity should be remained about 40 hundred million tons by 2020.Combined with the forecast conclusion and the China’s energy development goal, scientific formulating coal production capacity planning, comprehensively promoting energy saving and environmental protection, developing clean energy vigorously, deepening the reform and innovation of science and technology, strengthening the international energy cooperation and other aspects propose the relevant policy recommendations.