Analysis On Decomposition And Attribution Of Carbon Emission Intensity In Tianjin

Global warming is increasingly drawn wide attention from the international community. China, as the largest emitter of carbon dioxide, has a heavy responsibility on the issue. This paper chooses Tianjin as the study object, introduce the Attribution analysis on the basis of LMDI multiplicative decomposition model. We get a step further comparing to previous studies on decomposition of carbon emission and trace the reasons for changes in carbon emission intensity to final energy users from the perspective of the decomposition factors, provide a new perspective for reasons detecting promote behind carbon intensity. The main contents are as follows:(1) We calculate the energy-related carbon emissions of sectors in Tianjin and 36 sub-sectors of industrial in 2000-2011. The total carbon emissions of sectors in Tianjin keeps increasing year by year, it grows from 53.95 Mt to 137.38 Mt during the period with an annual increase of 7.58 Mt,. The industrial sector's emissions in the period 2000-2011 grows 6.54 Mt every year which contributs 86.23% of the total increase. This figure indicates that the industrial sector is the main source of Tianjin carbon emissions.(2) LMDI-Attribution model is applied to study the carbon intensity in five sectors during 2000-2011. The carbon intensity is decomposed as industrial structure, energy intensity and emission factor, then the changes of the three factors are attributed to the five sectors. The total carbon emissions intensity in five sectors fell 46.60% during 2000-2011, energy intensity is the main force driving down the carbon emission intensity with declining of 49.64%. Industrial sector contributs 34.68% to the effects of energy intensity, playing a major promoter to enhance energy intensity effect.(3) The carbon emission intensity of 36 sub-sectors of industrial sector is analyzed by LMDI-Attribution model. The carbon intensity in 2000-2011 show a downward trend with a cumulative decline of 61.61%. The structure plays a dominant role in the decline during 2001-2008, while the energy intensity replace the dominant position after 2009 as the main factors of carbon emission intensity decreasing. This is mainly due to the global economic crisis in 2008 and the government corresponding measures, which led to large changes in the structure of industrial sector in a short term. Due to the changes in production technology and energy efficiency in the industrial sector, the attribution of chemical industry and the steel industry to structure and energy intensity in the latter half of the study period changed greatly, meanwhile, these two sub-sectors suppress the promoting role of emission factor to carbon intensity.This study may clearly show up the developing trend and its reasons of the carbon emission intensity in Tianjin, explain the significance of relevant policies in carbon emissions in the past from the perspective of terminal sectors, provide a scientific reference for future policy.