The Study Of Ecological County Constructive Planning In Tongdao County,Hunan Province Based On System Dynamics

In proceeding with our research, we have taken Tongdao Dong Nationality Autonomy as a case study. A simulation model was developed using system dynamic method, which involved population subsystem, economic subsystem, resource utilization subsystem, environmental protection subsystem. The purpose was to find out the best scheme that was suit for Tongdao county. The conclusions were as follows:1. A sustainable development evaluation system with 27 indexes was built that included economic development, ecological environment protection and social progress by adopting analytic hierarchy process.2. The situation of social, economic, environment development of Tongdao county were simulated during year 2003 to year 2013 using the model, selecting total population, total GDP and fixed-asset investment as the inspection object. The results showed that the simulate data and the historical data were similar, the relative error between the predictive value and the actual statistical value were within the range of 3.32%, it reflected that the model were fitting for simulation and prediction.3. The sensitivity analysis of the model was conducted, the results showed that the natural population growth rate, the fixed-asset investment growth rate, the proportion of industrial fixed-asset investment, the proportion of the third industry fixed-asset investment, ratio of environmental protection investment, occupancy rate of cultivated land, the rate of deforestation, construction rate of marsh gas tank had obvious influence on the model. Using these eight parameters as the main control factor of the ecological county planning,4 kinds of schemes were put forward:the natural development model, the rapid development model, the environmental protection model and the coordinated development model.4. These 4 kinds of schemes were simulated under the constructed model, the results showed that The indexes value, change trend and sustainable development degree of the scheme ? have advantage over other three schemes,which was the best scheme for Tongdao county. Under this model the natural population growth rate was controlled within 5.6%o?6.0%o, the fixed-asset investment growth rate was 29%, the proportion of industrial fixed-asset investment was 0.36?0.37, the proportion of the third industry fixed-asset investment was 0.39?0.40, ratio of environmental protection investment was 0.04, occupancy rate of cultivated land was 0.012, the rate of deforestation was 0.009, construction rate of marsh gas tank was 0.039.