Study On The Effect Of 2030 Carbon Emission Peak Constraint On Chinese Energy Structure Adjustment

China promised carbon emissions to peak in 2030 at the 2015 climate conference held in Paris.Chinese energy consumption structure must be adjusted under the constraint of carbon emissions.Firstly need to clear the direction of energy structure adjustment in order to meet the goal of China's carbon emission peak.Then study the impact of energy structure adjustment on economic development,analyze the differences between different industries,which helps to improve the effectiveness of energy conservation and emission reduction policies.This paper firstly constructs a Markov chain prediction model of China energy consumption structure.The transition probability is obtained according to the constraint of carbon emission.The path of energy structure adjustment is given.The proportion of coal consumption will be decreased year by year,the proportion of oil remained stable,and the proportion of natural gas and non-fossil energy increased year by year.The four energy consumption ratio in turn is 48.26%,15.11%,16.19%,20.44% by 2030.Then this paper studies the impact of energy cost change caused by the adjustment of energy consumption structure on China's economic growth.The panel data model is constructed based on Cobb-Douglas production function theory,and the data of 36 industrial sectors in 1993-2014 are used for regression analysis.The results show that the increase in the cost of energy has a negative effect on the growth of industrial added value.Comprehensive energy prices increased by 1%,the added value of the entire industrial sector will be reduced by 0.3916%.While the impact of energy intensive industries is the largest,its industrial added value will be reduced by 1.0075%.Energy non-intensive industries mainly include high-tech industries,which are affected by the smaller.Its industrial added value decreased by only 0.3277%.This paper gives a quantitative analysis of the path of China's energy consumption structure adjustment.Innovatively study the economic effects of energy structure adjustment from the industry point of view.Highlight the difference of the industry.This paper has certain guiding significance to the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies.