Research On Safety Capacity Evaluation Model Of Chemical Industry Park Based On Quantitative Risk Analysis

In recent years,the number of chemical parks in China has been increasing,and the dangerous matter in the park has also caused serious accidents.In order to make both the relevant departments and the park managers can control the safety threshold of the industrial scale of the chemical industry park more easier and to ensure the safty and sustainable development of the park and maximize the enterprise benefit,the assessment and application research of the park safety capacity is an important problem that needs to be solved urgently.This paper analyzes the present situation of quantitative risk analysis and safety capacity development at home and abroad.Based on the overall risk of the park,the basic concept and the research scope of the safety capacity of the chemical park are defined,and the comprehensive evaluation model of the safety capacity of the chemical park is carried out with the engineering examples.The main research results are as followed:(1)Through the calculation of CASST-QRA V2.0 software,the control factor ?i of the safety equipment is introduced into the calculation of the total risk of the park.At the same time,the other effects are determined by means of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation ? to improve the safety capacity of the fixed hazard source.(2)Based on the single transportation risk of chemical industry park and the potential loss of life of loading and unloading point,combined with the actual turnover of the park every year,the paper puts forward the evaluation model of moving hazard source in chemical park,which overcomes the similarity between moving hazard risk and dangerous chemicals differences in the risk of transport leakage accidents.(3)The comprehensive evaluation software of safety capacity of chemical park was developed by Matlab,which provided technical support for calculating the fixed danger source and moving hazard source of chemical industry park.(4)The research results are applied to a petrochemical based in Chongqing,the fixed risk source and the safety source of the mobile hazard are calculated,and the rationalization suggestions are given,which verifies the practicality of the safety capacity calculation model in solving the practical problems.And provide reference for scientific management and safety decision of chemical industry park.