Research Of Risk Field And Safety Capacity For Chemical Industrial Park

Chemical industrial park is the place where is a variety of chemical industries gathered,but because it's large,complex and many uncertain factors,It's also a serious threat to the safety of the park and the surrounding environment when promoting local economic and social development.Therefore,the study on quantitive risk,analysis of chemical industrial park is the inevitable requirement of the park's management.Based on extensive research and analysis about security issues of the chemical industry park,from the visual angle of quantitive risk analysis about major accidents(disaster)and the risk capacity of Chemical Industry Park,it effectively integrates QRA theory and system safety theory,and studys the risk and vulnerability analysis of the chemical industry park,3D risk field,domino effect,safety capacity of chemical industry park,the index of risk management and the index of vulnerability,safety planning for chemical industry park,etc.First of all,based on the characteristics analysis of major accidents,from three aspects of chemical material,chemical technology and chemical equipment,it analyzes the factors causing fire and explosion.But the occurrence of accident is the joint action of hazardous source and hazard-affected body.So it analyzes the vulnerability about three kinds of hazard-affected bodies including staff,facilities,environment in contact with the energy of accidental release.the relationship between staff vulnerability and the workers exposed to the density and location,PPE and training personnel;the relationship between equipment vulnerability and facilities exposed to the density and location;the fire resistance ability and explosion proof ability;the relationship between environmental vulnerability and environmental exposure position,the importance of environment and recovery capability.And find out the relationship between accident,risk and vulnerability,and establish the theoretical foundation for the risk safety capacity analysis of chemical industrial park.Second,based on 3D quantitative risk theory and field theory,combine the concept of spatial risk field,risk source field,introducing the individual risk field and the social risk field,and constructs the risk field calculation model of chemical industrial park.Based on field theory,analyzed the concept and mathematical expression of risk intensity field,and obtained the mathematical expressions of flux and divergence of risk intensity field.The flux of risk intensity field said as the source size of the field strength;and expresses A4 divergence field at the flux on the volume rate,if the point M in the risk source field,the divergence expresses risk source field of per unit volume,the size of the risk said as the risk source field strength.They are the most important physical quantities in the risk field.Study on the domino effect analysis process of chemical industry park and the identification method of accident domino effect,and analyse the calculation model and the individual risk model of domino scene on two times damage probability of equipment.Based on the grid matrix method,study the calculating method of the risk field,and the mechanism of the equipotential surface of the risk field is given.Introducing the safety index theory,define the management index of chemical industrial park and the vulnerability index of chemical industrial park,and construct the evaluation system of index,and detailly analysis the selection and quantification of evaluation index,discusses the calculation method of fuzzy pattern recognition analysis and AHP.On the basis,combined with the theory of safety functional area in chemical industry park,propose the concept of risk safety capacity,the definition of inherent safety capacity and practical security capacity,then put forward to the concept of surplus safety capacity,describe safety capacity calculation mathematical model,and set up the evaluation model of the safety capacity of chemical industry park to supple and improve the theoretical system of safety capacity of chemical industry park.In order to quantify the overall safety level of chemical industrial park,combined with evaluation model of safety capacity and surplus safety capacity in chemical industrial park,study 3D dynamic security level classification model of the chemical industrial park based on surplus safety capacity,risk management index and vulnerability index.Propose the method of safety planning for chemical industry park,construct decision procedure of safe access for chemical industrial park,provide strong basis for safety layout and land-used planning of the enterprises in the park,also lay the foundation of the prediction of future trend in chemical industrial park.Finally,for Economic and Technological Development Zone of Shenyang it is evaluated and dynamic classification of in the chemical industrial park based on the theory of safety capacity for chemical industry park,and forecasts the development trend of the safety operating in the park.The conclusion of safety assessment and classification is consistent with the conclusion of the planning and evaluation on Economic and Technological Development Zone of Shenyang.