The Relationship Between Industrial Economic Development And Industrial Carbon Emissions:An Empirical Analysis On Jilin Province

Industry is the lifeline of the national economy.While the industrial economy grows rapidly and comprehensively,a large number of fossil energy is consumed which causes negative impacts on natural environment and society.Jilin province is an important industrial region in China with relatively developed processing and manufacturing industry.For a long time,heavy industrial structure and energy structure taking coal as a leading resource increase carbon emissions in Jilin province,worsen the natural environment,and even hinder the pace of industrial economy.Jilin province is facing serious pressure of energy conservation and emissions reduction.Researches in relationships between industrial economic development and industrial carbon emissions in Jilin province will help promote the sustainable development of industrial economy and the activity of energy conservation and emissions reduction in Jilin province.This paper is based on the panel data of 34 industries in Jilin province during 2000 and2015.Firstly,test the stationarity and cointegration relationship on the output value and carbon emissions of the three major industries,do the granger causality test and analyze the relationship between development of industrial economy and carbon emissions.Secondly,use LMDI decomposition method and the extended Kaya identity to measure the characteristics of industrial carbon emissions and influencing factors of each period.Then use the extended IPAT model to analyze long-term development of industrial economic in the aspects of industry internal structure,industrial energy intensity and energy consumption structure.The study found that:(1)From 2000 to 2015,industrial carbon emissions in Jilin province shows an increasing trend,Jilin Province is facing severe pressure on carbon reduction;(2)Two-way granger causality relationship exists between the growth of industrial output and carbon emissions;(3)The effect of industrial economic development is the main reason of the growth in industrial carbon emissions in Jilin province;Industrial structure effect on growth of industrialcarbon emissions effect is not obvious;The change of energy consumption intensity contributes more on the reduction of industrial carbon emissions.Improving the level of energy consumption efficiency and technology is the most important section of the activity of carbon reduction;(4)The improvement of energy efficiency is the most obvious factor to reduce industrial carbon emissions,followed by industry internal structure,industrial production and the scale of investment in fixed assets.Finally,make suggestions on carbon emission reduction for Jilin province combined with the result of empirical analysis.