Study On The Influence Factors Of Industrial Carbon Emissions And Spatio-temporal Effect In The Yangtze River Economic Belt

In the context of the rapid development of the global economy,the massive use of fossil energy such as coal,oil,and natural gas by modern industrial societies has caused a sharp increase in global carbon dioxide emissions.According to statistics,in2018,global carbon dioxide emissions reached the highest level ever.One of the countries with the highest carbon dioxide emissions in the world,greenhouse gas emissions in 2018 increased by nearly 500 million tons compared to 2017.Behind the rapid economic development,it brings a high demand for energy,how to effectively reduce the scale of carbon emissions,It is the key to China's carbon emission reduction performance.The Yangtze River Economic Belt spans the three major regional areas of China's east,middle and west.The whole region is highly open to the outside world and has outstanding scientific and technological innovation capabilities.It has 40% of China's population,and the regional GDP output value is close to half of China's GDP At the same time,it is also a key area of ??carbon emissions in China.Therefore,the performance of carbon emission reduction in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is the main factor affecting the overall carbon emission reduction in China.Industry is the industry with the largest carbon emissions among all industries.Improving its energy efficiency and reducing the scale of carbon emissions in the industrial industry is the key to achieving China's mission to reach the carbon peak around 2030 as soon as possible.There are significant differences in the economic level,environmental resources,and technological development among the provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Each province should develop a low-carbon economy according to local conditions,accelerate the low-carbon transformation of the industrial industry,and contribute to China's carbon emission reduction tasks.Under this background,this paper selects the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object,explores and measures the characteristics of industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the global temporal characteristics,local spatial characteristics and regional spatial differences.The overall scale of industrial carbon emissions and the development trend in the proportion of total industrial carbon emissions in China.After using the Moran index to diagnose the spatial correlation of industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze RiverEconomic Belt,the industry investment scale and labor were selected through the expanded STIRPAT model.Five influencing factors of efficiency output,carbon emission intensity,opening to the outside world,and the degree of environmental protection,using spatial measurement methods to empirically study the direct effects of these influencing factors on the industrial carbon emission scale of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and the spatial dependence between the influencing factors In order to provide effective policy suggestions for the green sustainable development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the future,enrich the relevant research on the spatial measurement of industrial carbon emissions,and provide support and reference for the carbon emission research of other developed economic belts or urban circles in China.The thesis is divided into three parts for empirical research.The first part is an introduction,which mainly includes the background and significance of the research,as well as a literature review of carbon emission estimation methods,influencing factors,and spatial measurement studies.It summarizes and summarizes the research status of industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Introduce the research ideas and framework of this article and the introduction of related methods and models.The main purpose is to lay a theoretical foundation for the research.The second part is the analysis of the empirical results of the spatial econometric model,which mainly includes the spatial correlation diagnosis of the industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone and the construction of the spatial econometric model.Through the analysis of the observation data and the comparison of the test results of the model parameter estimates Empirical research with industrial carbon emissions provides information and data support.First,understand the overall scale of industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in recent years and the development trend of its share in the total industrial carbon emissions in China,and use the global Moran's I index and local Moran's I index to analyze the global spatial self-reliance of industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Correlation and local spatial autocorrelation.It is found that industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone have a significant spatial agglomeration effect.Then,separately build three spatial measurement models: spatial error model(SEM),spatial lag model(SLM),and spatial Dubin model(SDM)and test the parameter estimation fit degree.After comparative analysis,choose the best fitting effect The spatial Dubin model analyzes the spatial effects of influencing factors.Finally,according to the empirical results of the direct and indirect spatial Doberman decomposition model,the reliability of the study is verified,and related policy suggestions and countermeasures are proposed.The study found that first,from 2004 to 2017,the total industrial carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt continued to increase year by year until 2012.After the 2013-2015 period basically stabilized,2015-2017 began to slowly decline,and 2004-In 2017,the ranking of total industrial carbon emissions in the upper,middle and lower reaches remained basically unchanged.The total amount of industrial carbon emissions in the downstream areas was the highest and ranked first;second,the industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt can be judged based on the positive Moran's I index over the years Carbon emissions have a significant spatial aggregation effect,showing a significant high-high aggregation in the downstream region and a low-low aggregation in the upstream region.The regional differences are obvious,the intra-regional differences are smaller than the inter-regional differences,and the spatial aggregation phenomenon is relatively stable;Based on the expanded STIRPAT model,the comparison found that the error-corrected spatial Dubin model is most suitable for the spatial difference study of the influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone.The third part is to sort out the research conclusions and put forward targeted policy recommendations.The main conclusion is that there is a certain demonstration role of industrial carbon emissions in various regions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The scale of industry investment is the most important factor affecting the growth of industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt;the current rapid development of the industrial economy is the leading factor in the growth of industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The relationship between industrial economic growth and industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt also supports The "Environmental Kuznets Curve" hypothesis shows that there is an "N-type" relationship between the level of economic development and industrial carbon emissions,there is a significant "reorganization" effect,and there is a "pollution paradise,pollution refuge" phenomenon;labor efficiency There is a strong spatial spillover effect of carbon emission intensity and carbon emission intensity.The demonstration and leading role of industrial carbonemission reduction among regions plays a pivotal role in reducing industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt;reducing industrial carbon emission intensity,increasing the level of openness,Increasing the proportion of investment in environmental pollution control is an important measure to reduce industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and is of great significance for achieving industrial carbon emission reductions.