| With the global climate warming and energy crisis caused by high consumption,the focus of national development has been transferred to the transformation of economic growth mode,change the existing situation of high carbon emissions,how to enter the era of low-carbon economic development etc..Since the reform and opening-up in 1978,China's economy has been grown steadily and widely over the last 39 years.China has been the second largest economy in the world for 6 years,simultaneously,economic growth also doubled the energy consumption every year.China emits the most carbon dioxide in the world for the last 6 years and this situation does not seem to change.China will not only face the high carbon emission issue but also take responsibilities of reducing carbon emission and saving energy.The faster and better build the low-carbon economy and green environmental protection industry the better China's economy can grow sustainably.Chongqing is one of oldest industrial city in China and it is still in the process of industrialization,Chongqing has the symptom of industrialization and heavy pollution.Chongqing is also the biggest municipality in China and it is going to be one of the first low carbon cities in China announced by the national development and Reform Commission in 2010,and this requires Chongqing to play a leading role to control and reduce the emission of carbon dioxide,focus on energy saving and emission reduction and actively explore new ways of creating green economy along with local situation.Therefore,in order to ensure the sustained economic growth without damaging the environment,we need to thoroughly understand the relationship between economic growth,energy consumption and carbon emissions.First,this article discussed how the economic structure,energy structure,energy intensity and carbon intensity affected Chongqing economy growth,energy consumption and carbon emission for last 32 years by analyzing statistics.With the rapid economic growth,energy consumption and carbon emissions in Chongqing shows an upward trend,the energy emission is mainly from coal,the third industry is with huge potential.The intensity of energy consumption and carbon emission is still at a high level,Chongqing is under a huge pressure of energy saving and emission reduction.Second,the article created a VAR model of economic growth,energy consumption and carbon emissions,based on the theory of "3E" in a top-down model.Made an analysis via ADF unit root test,Johannsen cointegration test,Granger causality test,AR model and IRF pulse stability test study of internal relations and with dynamic response the response mechanism between them.Final conclusion is that in Chongqing city during 1983-2015 economic growth,energy consumption and carbon emissions are two order difference stationary I sequence(2),and among them there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship,cointegration equation can be obtained according to the energy consumption increased by 1 percentage points each,Chongqing GDP increased by 1.7854 percentage points however,2 increased by 1 percentage points each,Chongqing's GDP increased 0.3587 percentage points.This indicates that energy is still a critical factor for economic growth,however,environmental quality has more great effect on the economy growth;As per Granger causality analysis,the flow is “energy consumption ? economic growth” and “carbon emissions ? economic growth” and “energy consumption ? carbon emissions”,Chongqing's rapid development of economy and economy Efficiency are still highly depending on the high energy consumption and high carbon emissions.If the implementation of energy-saving emission reduction measures is too large,it will cause a certain degree of negative impact on Chongqing economic growth.Generalized impulse response function results in the foreseeable future,a period of time during the follow-up period in Chongqing energy consumption has a first positive negative impact effect on economic growth,and economic growth in Chongqing on energy consumption and carbon emissions will have a positive impact on the whole effect,and all the impact will be with the increasingly long time decreased.Third,through the gray correlation analysis method,grey correlation model is established for Chongqing in the period of 2000-2015 economic growth,energy consumption and carbon emissions.to investigate the association degree of Chongqing City carbon emissions from energy consumption of these 5 factors,the total energy structure?Economic growth ?energy structure ?energy efficiency?industrial structure.The conclusion is that the total energy consumption > economic growth > energy structure > energy efficiency > industrial structure,and the correlation degree of the 5 factors are greater than 0.69,which has a great impact on carbon emissions.Finally,through the analysis on the above research conclusion,we put forward some targeted policy recommendations,hoping to improve the quality of economic growth in Chongqing City,the transformation of economic growth mode and how to properly control the carbon emission. |
PDF Full Text Request