Research On The Driving Factors Of Chinese Carbon Dioxide Emission From The Perspective Of Provincial Heterogeneity

The global climate change caused by a large number of greenhouse gas emissions has seriously affected the survival and development of human society.The problem of carbon dioxide emission reduction has become a hot issue that the academic community is very concerned about.China is not only the largest developing country in the world,but also the country with the largest total amount of carbon dioxide emissions.The contradiction between environmental protection and social and economic development has become increasingly prominent.Formulating effective policies for carbon dioxide emission reduction and ensuring coordinated development of environment and social economy are imperative.First,based on the IPAT model of population,affluence and technology,this paper constructed a scalable STIRPAT theoretical model,incorporated industrial structure,energy consumption structure and policy factors,and changed the total analysis to per capita analysis.Second,this study has accurately selected and calculated indicators and data such as per capita carbon dioxide emissions,per capita GDP,energy intensity,tertiary industry structure,coal consumption structure and policies from 2005 to 2016 in 30 provinces in China.Then,on the basis of the theoretical model and literature review,we put forward the research hypothesis that the increase in per capita GDP,energy intensity and coal consumption structure will increase carbon dioxide emissions.The increase in the tertiary industry structure and the emission reduction policy will reduce carbon dioxide emissions.Then,establish the provincial panel carbon dioxide emission driving factor model under the influence of different policies,compare the difference in the driving factors of carbon dioxide emission in different regions,and the difference in the influence of different policies on carbon dioxide emission reduction in different regions.Formulate effective emission reduction policies to provide the basis.The empirical results show that energy intensity has become the most important driving factor affecting carbon dioxide emissions in most of the eastern,middle and western provinces of China,followed by the level of economic development.Among them,economic growth is the most critical positive driving factor for the growth of carbon dioxide emissions.The decline in energy intensity is the biggest negative driving factor for carbon dioxide emissions.In addition,energy consumption structure and industrial structure factors also have a relatively large impact on carbon dioxide emissions.Different drivers have different effects on carbon dioxide emissions in different regions.Energy intensity has the greatest impact on carbon dioxide emissions in the eastern region;the industrial structure has the greatest impact on carbon dioxide emissions in the central region;economic development and energy consumption structure have the greatest impact on carbon dioxide emissions in the western region.Moreover,from the relationship between carbon dioxide emission reduction policies and carbon dioxide emissions,it can be concluded that the later policy will have more significant emission reduction effects.The main performance is that the emission reduction policies of more provinces in the eastern and western regions have changed from ineffective to effective suppression of carbon dioxide emissions.Finally,in order to effectively control the growth of carbon dioxide emissions,reduce its damage to the ecological environment and realize the coordinated development of the economic society and the ecological environment,this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations for different regions.