The Scale Calculations And Influence Mechanism Of The Implied Carbon Emission In China's Foreign Trade

With the globalization of economy,the development of the economy has been greatly promoted by international trade.At the same time,the development of the economy has consumed a large of natural resources and has led to global climate change and the increase of greenhouse gas emissions.Because of the "Emissions responsibility in the national territory",some countries or regions have achieved their emission reduction targets through transferring the pollution.As a result,carbon emissions in the developing countries have increasing with the transfer of some industries and production processes which has highly pollution emission intensity.With the argument of energy constraints and attribution of carbon emissions responsibility in the process of global warming,the carbon emissions behind the international trade have been widely worried and in-depth study.Having been the largest developing country in the world,today China is in a new period of strategic development.At the same time,foreign trade has being an important factor driving economic development.As a "workshop of the world",China is still a big trading nation,not a trading power.China's export trade is dominated by high-energy products with high carbon emission.On the contrary,the import trade is dominated by high-tech products and services with relatively low carbon emissions.In recent years,with a surge in exports,China has won a huge trade surplus,while also dumping a lot of pollutants at home.In this paper,there is a system study between China's foreign trade and the carbon emissions.Besides,the paper has a quantitative analysis of China's foreign trade in both of the overall situation and the trading partner level.To some extent,it can provide the theoretical basis and win the right to international emission reduction responsibility that matches China's current development situation.Having analyzed the carbon emission of various industrial sectors in China's foreign trade,this paper contributes to optimize China's trade structure and establish an environment-friendly society.This paper also has systematically combined the factors influencing the change of the implied carbon emission in China's foreign trade,and provided the necessary policy reference for China's foreign trade structure adjustment.On the one hand,using input-output model,this paper has estimated the production,consumption and trade implied carbon emission and the carbon emissions trading conditions of China in 1992-2012.Besides,it also has analyzed the measurement results in the overall level,department level and trade partner level.The results are as follows.In 1992-2012,direct carbon emission intensity and total carbon emission intensity of Chinese departments are significant and decreasing.China's production,consumption and foreign trade implied carbon emission are increasing at first and then decreasing.China's carbon emission trading conditions were always less than 1,and the international trade environment was conducive to China's energy conservation and emission reduction.(23)-the construction industry and(26)-other service industry are the biggest department of China's production and consumption implied carbon emission.There are three departments,(19)-the communication equipment,computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry,(12)-the chemical industry,(14)-the metal smelting and rolling processing industry,which were high ranking in China's foreign trade implied carbon emission.China has net exports of implied carbon to Japan,the European Union and the United States,showing a high degree of concentration in the industry.On the other hand,this paper applies LMDI method on the basis of quantitative calculation to decompose the factors that influence the implied carbon emission of China's foreign trade.The results are as follows.In 1992-2012,the amount of China's export trade implied carbon emission was 803.5 million tons,the scale effect,structure effect and intensity effect respectively accounted for 131.51%,29.30%,-60.81%.The amount of implied carbon emission of China's import trade was 775.4 million tons,of which the scale effect,structural effect and intensity effect accounted for 113.35%,13.49%and-26.84%.The expansion of scale effect is the main reason for the increasing of implied carbon emission in trade.The adjustment of trade structure plays a positive role in the increase of implicit carbon emission in China.The improvement of the technical level of production and energy using has played a negative role in the increase of the implied carbon emission of China's trade.In order to accurately measure the CO2 emission of various departments,this paper studies eight fossil energy sources and power sources.The energy consumption data of all industries with energy losses were selected.According to the proportion of thermal power generation to total power consumption,the CO2 emission caused by power consumption is calculated reasonably.This paper selected the 10 import trade with closer countries and regions to estimates China's import trade implicit carbon emissions accurately.By calculating the intensity of carbon trading partners and China's carbon intensity ratio and combining with national import share and GDP,China imported carbon intensity correction coefficient and the average carbon intensity of China's imported products are accurately calculated in this paper.However,in some data processing,such as the industry merging,input-output table integration,constructing price index,this paper still exist certain subjectivity and the error,which has some impact on the calculation results.