Research On The Calculation And Influencing Factors Of Implied Carbon Emissions From Industrial Products Export Trade In Shandong Province

It is a worldwide concern to control and reduce carbon emission so as to meet emission reduction target of the nation. According to China's commitment on Paris Agreement reached recently:To around 2030, China should reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60%- 65% compared to that in 2005. There is no doubt that the target put huge stress on China from both at home and abroad. Because export of China base on processing trade has not only boomed our development but consumed a large amount of energy and environmental resources, which took up a major proportion of carbon emissions.As an economy-prosperous province, Shandong province has ranked the forefront of China in both total trade volume and export trade volume. Besides, its export is mainly composed of processing trade, in which manufactured products account for more than 80% of the export industry, just sharing the similar industrial structure of our country. On this basis, it is significant to calculate implied carbon emissions embodied in industrial product export of Shandong Province, and analyze its influential factors. It is advantageous to the control and reduction of carbon emissions implied in export, which contributes to the realization of carbon emissions reduction target of Shandong province. The analysis not only puts forward related policies and measures in view of the sustained and healthy development of the economy, but also provides experience and guidance for our country about the realization of carbon emissions reduction targets.This paper primarily selected industrial products export trade related data of Shandong province from 2005 to 2014 to complete the research. As far as calculation of carbon emission, the input-output model is used in data processing and calculation, by which implied carbon emissions is measured contained in industrial products export trade of Shandong province in 2005-2014, revealing an undulatory tendency in this period. Although implicit carbon emissions in 2011 began to present a downward trend, the total amount has remained considerable. More than that, carbon emissions is still higher in metal processing manufacturing, petrochemical industry, equipment and computer manufacturing, than other industrial departments. In light of influential factors, the paper primarily analyzes them by dissembling the Structural Decomposition Analysis model to figure out calculation formula of scale effect, technology effect, structure effect, together with related data from implied carbon emission calculation. It turns out the expansion of Shandong Province export scale leads to the increasement of implied carbon emission while the technology effect has an apparent impact on emission reduction. However, due to the stronger effect of scale effect, the implicit carbon emissions remains high. Furthermore, the analysis shows a relatively small structural effect indicator, revealing an nuanced inhibition on implied carbon emission and thus a further optimization in industrial structure and trade structure of Shandong Province. Combined with the calculation and analysis mentioned, given the specific situation of industrial product export in Shandong Province, the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions, such as to strengthen policy guidance, to optimize the trade layout, to promote transformation and upgrading of processing trade, to optimize export trade structure, to prevent export trade implicit carbon from structural growth, etc.