Prediction And Risk Assessment Of Forest Carbon Sink Demand Based On Different Industries

Global concern on climate issues raised on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions revolution,development of different enterprises can not completely avoid the emission of carbon dioxide,with Chinese gradually implementation of carbon emission reduction policies and gradually start carbon trading pilot provinces and cities to present a unified national carbon trading market,the development of different industries facing the carbon dioxide emission reduction cost.Forest carbon sequestration as a commodity that can be used to offset carbon emissions of enterprises,its market price will directly affect the demand of different industries.This paper takes Shenzhen,Shanghai,Beijing,Guangdong,Tianjin,Hubei,Chongqing seven national carbon emissions trading pilot as an example,by using the directional distance function parameter method to calculate the carbon industry 7 samples of different corporate carbon shadow price,and estimated the different sectors of abatement costs,through grey correlation analysis whether there is correlation between time series and industry marginal carbon abatement cost,because the marginal carbon abatement cost in time series by association of the year is bigger,so using a differential GM(1,1)model prediction of forest carbon price,using the cloud model generator positive predict chemical three,steel and power industry demands for the forest carbon sequestration price,finally according to the risk assessment capabilities of cloud model to evaluate the risk of forest carbon sink demand price.The results show that the prediction results of forest carbon sink price in different industries are different,and the price is very high.The demand price of forest carbon sequestration has high risk level,so it is necessary to take appropriate measures to reduce the risk.Based on the above results,relevant policy recommendations are given.Clearly more mandatory emission reduction responsibility,expand the carbon dioxide emission reduction assessment scope and standards,stimulate more enterprises feel the pressure to reduce emissions and enter the carbon trading market;differential treatment of carbon dioxide emission reduction enterprises in different industries,the implementation of differentiated standards,promote the forest carbon sink market demand;the forest carbon products fully incorporated into the carbon trading market,standardize its operation,and the introduction of relevant policies and regulations to protect its price in order to ensure adequate supply of forest carbon sinks.