Study On Ecological Pressure In The Wanjiang City Belt Based Onemergy-ecological Footprint Model

Economic development and environmental pollution go hand in hand,posing a certain pressure on regional ecological and environmental security.Economic development can no longer be at the expense of the ecological environment,How to grasp the ecological pressure of the ecological environment in the region is the focus of this study.Based on the review of the traditional ecological footprint model and the emergy-ecological footprint model,this paper analyzes the defects of the traditional ecological footprint model,integrates the application of the energy-ecological footprint model by scholars at home and abroad,and introduces regional energy density,establishes the emergy-ecological footprint model in line with the actual conditions of the Wanjiang City Belt,and then the ecological pressure conditions of the Wanjiang City Belt and the nine prefecture-level cities have been measured from 2011-2016.First,calculate the ecological footprint of per capita regional ecological carrying capacity and per capita energy value,and compare and analyze them between prefecture-level cities and six major land types;Second,the per capita ecological deficit/surplusand ecological footprint intensity index(EFI)are calculated using the calculated per capita regional ecological carrying capacity and per capita empowermentecological footprint;Three,EFI is used to characterize regional ecological pressure conditions and establish ecological security levels;finally,through the GM(1,1)model to predict the status of ecological pressure in the region and establish an early warning mechanism for ecological security.Through the above empirical analysis,the following points are mainly obtained:(1)From the perspective of the region as a whole,the per capita regional ecological carrying capacity of the Wanjiang City Belt has generally shown an upward trend;from the perspective of local cities,the per capita regional ecological carrying capacity of localities and the regional ecological carrying capacity are not in the same ranking,which is mainly due to The impact of population.In terms of per capita empowermentecological footprint,except for Tongling,other regions generally show an upward trend;in the composition of per capita empowermentecological footprints in different regions,the per capita empowermentecological footprint corresponding to fossil energy in heavy industry is the highest,while that in other regions is arable land corresponding to the highest per capita empowermentecological footprint.In the composition of the six major land types in the region,the proportion of empowermentecological footprint corresponding to construction land occupied the proportion of cultivated land.(2)With regard to the per capita ecological deficit/surplus index,ecological deficits have continued to appear in various regions over the years;In terms of EFI,in the period of 2011-2013,the EFI of all local cities showed an overall increase,but by 2014,except for Tongling,the EFI of other eight cities showed a certain degree of decline,and in 2015-2106,The ecological pressure indices of various places have declined in different degrees.The classification of ecological security based on the EFI indicates that most of the areas within theWanjiang City Belt are still ecologically safe.(3)The regional EFI for 2017-2021 forecasted by the GM(1,1)model all showed a downward trend,and the corresponding ecological safety grades showed that except forMaanshan was in a state of mild insecurityfor a short period of time,the cities are in a relatively safe state.Therefore,apart from establishing a short-term light police for the ecological security of Maanshan,the establishment of ecological safety warnings for other prefecture-level cities is mainly based on the absence of police.