Research On Logistics Demand Forecast Of Yibin Port Under The Background Of Linkage Development

In the increasingly fierce competition environment of domestic and international market,the port development can not simply rely on the scale,the need for a certain range of internal and external linkage,the port linkage development has become a trend.It is the precondition and foundation for the port to carry on the system planning,the function localization and the development strategy of linkage development.Based on the theory research of port linkage development,relationship between the port and the hinterland,port logistics demand forecasting,the influence mechanism of the linkage to the port logistics demand was specified.According to the port economic hinterland to supply market segmentation under the background of the linkage development,First,analyzed the linkage status of Yibin port,based on the hinterland resources of Yunnan,Guizhou and Sichuan provinces,guided by cargo transportation organization in and out of port,to find out the economic hinterland which has a direct impact on Yibin port.Secondly,through qualitative analysis of relationship between port and hinterland to find out the influencing factors of Yibin port logistics demand.Constructed the index system,and the key index was screened by grey correlation analysis.Finally,innovatively proposed nesting combination forecasting method,the inner layer is combined by linear regression and exponential smoothing to predict BP neural network input vectors,the outer layer is combined by GM(1,1)and BP neural network to forecast port throughput of Yibin port during the 13 th five-year.Comprehensive theoretical research and empirical analysis,the following conclusions are drawn in this paper:First,the port logistics development level and the hinterland economic development situation has the coordination,the hinterland resources situation determines the industrial structure and then affect the port logistics demand.The freight transportation situation and the transportation network of the economic hinterland have obvious relevance with the throughput of the port.At present,the road transport has a great influence on the logistics development of Yibin port,especially the container handling capacity.Second,under the background of the linkage development,18 cities of the Chengdu Economic Zone,the southern Sichuan Economic Zone and the Pan Xi – Liupanshui Economic Zone have a direct impact on the logistics demand of Yibin port.Third,under the beneficial promotion of construction of the Yangtze River Economic and the linkage development Yibin port logistics is developing rapidly.cargo throughput and container throughput will remain high-speed growth during the 13 th five-year,by 2020 container volume will exceed 1 million TEUs.For the rapid development of Port Logistics,Yibin port needs to inject new impetus to the port logistics strategic planning and construction.Fourth,BP neural network has a higher prediction accuracy than GM(1,1),linear regression and exponential smoothing.With the extension of the forecast period,the ability of the BP neural network to close to real data is declining,GM(1,1)can solve this problem,because it can keep the data inherent trend.On the whole,the combination forecasting can overcome the one-sided of each single prediction and the accuracy of prediction is better.