| Flood disaster is one of the worst natural disasters in human history. During the struggle with floods, human beings usually take engineering measures as well as non-structural measures to deal with the possible risks brought by flood. As we all know, hydrological forecasting is the core of the non-structural measures for flood mitigation and plays a leading role in scheduling decisions. As Qinghe reservoir plays a decisive role in the Liaohe River Flood Control Engineering System, whether it is appropriately scheduled and decided related to the life and property safety of the people in middle and lower reaches of Liaohe River. Therefore, Qinghe reservoir upstream basin is taken as the study background and research on flood forecast of Qinghe Reservoir based on TOPMODEL is developed in this paper. Firstly, hydrographic and geographical features of Qinghe basin are analyzed, and the application of TOPMODEL is taken to predict the Qinghe reservoir and the effects of topographic index dispersion degree of forecast accuracy are studied. Secondly, runoff units are classified according to the layout of the rainfall sites. Runoff and c onverge simulation are carried out respectively in sub-unit and non-unit condition. The simulation results is compared with that of the Xin'anjiang model. Finally, JAVA technology is used to develop a Qinghe Reservoir flood simulating and forecasting system based TOPMODEL model. Main research and results in this paper are as follows:(1) The relationship between forecasting Model and DEM is analyzed according to hydrological characteristics of Qinghe Basin. Topographic index is extracted from the DEM data of the Qinghe basin. The Qinghe reservoir flood forecasting model is established based on TOPMODEL. And the model parameters optimization method is determined.(2) Describe a method of discrete classification of topographic index and analyze the effects of different dispersion degrees to flood simulation results. The results show that when the number of topographic index classes is greater than 30, we achieve the best forecast results.(3) Simulate the runoff and converge results of the Qinghe Basin using the TOPMODEL on the condition that the topographic index are classified into 50 classes. The runoff and converge simulation of the 22 floods of the Qinghe reservoir are conducted. The pass rate of its runoff,and peak are 95.5%, the peak current simulation time are 100%.According to" Standard for Hydrological Information And Hydrological forecasting",The simulation results is almost the same to Xin'anjiang model. But for the larger flood whose flow is greater than 1000m3/s, the TOPMDEL simulation results is better than the simulation results in Xin'anjiang model. Due to the small number of rainfall sites, simulation results in non-unit condition is not better than that in sub-unit condition. When the sub-units are assorted according to the rainfall control range and the information corresponding to the rainfall sites is input into the grids to calculate the runoff results, most screenings flood calculation results have no significant improvement. And the accuracy did not reduced. The probably reason is that the number of Basin sites is too small, and the rainfall information's representativeness is not strong for its control range.(4) To facilitate flood simulation and forecast programming, Spring framework and Mybatis database framework are combined to develop the flood forecasting system of the Qinghe Reservoir based on j2ee technology and MVC design pattern. The system is capable to make real-time forecast of the flood of the Qinghe basin and make simulation of historical floods. In addition, the system has open interfaces. That is why it can not only be embedded in other hydrological model, but be applied to other reservoir flood forecasting. |
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