Evaluation Of Operation Status Of Distribution Network And Its Development Trend Prediction Based On Data Fusion Of The Marketing And Distribution

Distribution network is an important link to connect the transmission network and users. It is an important task to accurately assess the operation status of the distribution network to ensure the security, stability, and economic of power grid. Compared with the transmission network, distribution network has a more complex structure, a larger number of devices, a relatively low automation level, and the difficulty of operation data collection, thus increasing the complexity of distribution network operation status evaluation. On the other hand, distribution network marketing system and production management system contains abundant distribution network operation data. How to integrate the data of these two systems in order to make up the deficiency of the data needed for the evaluation of distribution network operation status is an important project in the control of distribution network operation and maintenance.This paper is funded by the key science and technology project "research on the resource optimization and key technologies of service in distribution network base on data fusion of the marketing and distribution" of China State Grid Corp and supported by Hunan electric power company. This paper is closely combined with the production practice of Hunan distribution network, researching the theory and method of operation status evaluation of distribution network and its realization technology systematically based on data fusion of the marketing and distribution in order to improve the operation management level of distribution network. The main work of this paper is as follows:This paper studies the correlation theory of the marketing and distribution data fusion systematically, including the the necessity, feasibility, construction principles, construction goal of the marketing and distribution data fusion, data flow between production and marketing system and the architecture of distribution network comprehensive support service platform. On the basis of deep research on the connotation and extension of the data fusion of the marketing and distribution, the data requirements for the evaluation of distribution network operation status and its development trend prediction are put forwardA set of evaluation index system of distribution network operation status is put forward based on data fusion of the marketing and distribution. The system includes the target layer, the criterion layer and the index layer, the target layer is the general situation of the distribution network operation status, the criterion layer contains six major indexs including load rate, voltage qualification rate, operation failure, power supply reliability, power loss and three-phase unbalance, the index layer contains 21 single indexes. The definition and calculation method of the index in the evaluation system, the basic data needed for the calculation of the index value and the data source are explained in detail. AHP-Delphi method is used to calculate the index weight factor, and fuzzy membership function is used to determine single index scoring formula.After systematically explaining the correlation theory of the operation status development trend prediction, the fishbone diagram is adopted to extract the index system of operation status development trend prediction based on the index system mentioned above, eliminating the "three-phase unbalance" index which is difficult to predict. The characteristics of the data and information applied in the development trend prediction which can be obtained practically are analyzed. The connotation and calculation method of the development trend prediction index are defined. A new idea of development trend prediction is put forward based on the combination of load forecasting and power flow calculation. The process of development trend prediction of operation status is given. The feasibility and rationality of the ideal of development trend prediction are tested by the simulation of a realistic example.In this paper, the evaluation index system and method of distribution network operation status have been put into trial operation in Hunan power company’s "distribution network comprehensive support service platform", which has a good practical engineering effect.