| This article based on series of precipitation and runoff data of 152 hydrological stations from 1956 to 2012,using Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall test,AHP analysis to study the rainfall and runoff evolution law during dry season,established the model of water resources allocation with the actual situation using Mike Basin.By the contrast analysis,the research results are as follows.(1)Law of water resource evolvement during dry season.In the study area,the water precipitation from 1950 s to 60s(1100~1200mm)is lager than 1970 s to 80s(800~900mm)during dry season.From 1990 s to the 21 st century,precipitation kept increase and fluctuated greatly(900~1100mm).Runoff change is in accordance with precipitation during dry season,it has an overall downward trend,the drop rate is slow,about0.61m3/10a(3 consecutive months during dry)and 0.22m3/10a(5 consecutive months during dry)and the evolution period is 42 a.(2)Water scarcity during dry season.Water deficiency is 0,0.29 million m3,1.90 million m3and 2.89 million m3 under 20%,50%,75%,95% reliability in 3 consecutive months during dry season(December to February).Water deficiency is 0,0.48 million m3,3.62 million m3 and 5.69 million m3 under 20%,50%,75%,95% reliability in 3consecutive months during dry season(November to March).The score of water security comprehensive evaluation is-0.17,water resources overall in good condition,but the risk resistance capacity in special drought years is weak.(3)Scientific allocation schemes of water resources during dry season.Starting regulation level is 17.21 m,the normal storage level is 17.5 m in actuality year(2012)Starting regulation level is 17.21 m,the normal storage level is 17.5 m in actuality year(2012.Under this plan,the degree of guarantee of water supply is up to 100%.The results of the study provide a certain technical ideas for exploring the evolvement law of precipitation in Huaihe River and studying rational allocation of regional water resources during dry season. |
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