Research On The Bus Operational Reliability And It's Improving Strategies

Bus operational reliability is research on bus operation from the perspective of Public transport operation subsystem, and it is an important factor while passengers choose bus to travel. Bus operation reliability evaluation and study on it's improving strategies based on reliability not only can provide decision support for bus enterprises and relevant government administrative department, offer technician technical support, but also can be important aspects of realizing bus priority and improving bus attraction. So, it has a certain theoretical value and practical significance.Firstly, on the basis of bus lines operating characteristic analysis, combined with existing research achievement to improve the concept of bus operational reliability providing theoretical support for the research of bus operational reliability. And then, Qualitative analysis on the factors affecting the reliability of public transport operation is conduct. The abnormal data of the transit AVL system automatically collected data is divided into three categories:repeated data, misremembered data, and missing data. For these three kinds of data, AVL abnormal data processed method is proposed according to the procedures of identifying repeated data. In addition, the downside of AVL data of Suzhou 1 road bus is processed by the proposed approach to provide data for the below research. Based on the processed AVL data, bus operational reliability characteristic is analyzed.Secondly, weighted unpunctuality index is proposed, and it is served as evaluation index of bus operational reliability with punctuality rate. In addition, multi-level bus operation reliability evaluation model is established based on section (micro), site (medium), line (macro), and evaluation standard is formulated. And, on the basis of processed AVL data and evaluation model, the operational reliability of Suzhou 1 road bus is evaluated at all levels. Qualitative analysis of factors affecting the reliability is analyzed according to the results of reliability evaluation.Finally, based on bus operational reliability evaluation result and it's improving strategies analysis, the idea that adopting holding strategy to improve bus operational reliability is put forward. In addition, the improved on-time holding strategy and the matching bus section travel time prediction model are put forward after comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of current achievement of bus on-time holding strategy. In order to verify the presented simulation model and the effect of the improved on-time holding strategy on improving bus operational reliability, public transport operation process is programmed in Matlab based on the Monte Carlo method.