Civil Aircraft Landing Excursion Risk Analysis Based On Bow-tie Model

In order to analysis civil aircraft landing runway excursion risk more systematic and more comprehensive, 62 landing runway overrun and runway veer off complete accident/incident investigation reports which were released officially by worldwide aviation accident investigation agencies from 2010 to 2013 are collected. Of these 62 reports, 37 involve landing runway overrun and 25 involve landing runway veer off. Bow-tie model is applied to study this article. The SHEL model and Reason model is combined to use to identify and analysis the reasons of runway excursion. The factors that contribute to runway excursions are concluded as flight crew factor, mechanical factor, environmental factor and management factor. Through the data statistics this study finds that flight crew factor and environmental factor are most involved in both runway excursion and runway veer off occurrences. Based on the historical data grey relation theory is used to calculate the grey correlation degree of factors that contribute to landing runway overrun. The calculate result shows that the three most important factors causing landing overrun are loss of situational awareness, crew resources management failure and wet or contaminated runway. In terms of landing runway excursion consequence analysis, aircraft damage, casualties' degree, airport and surrounding environment influence are chosen as evaluation index and the landing runway excursion consequence is divided into 5 grades: negligible, marginal, critical, and catastrophic. Through the consequences analysis it is found that the consequence, whatever about casualties, aircraft damage or the damage of ground equipment and facilities, of runway overrun is more serious than what of runway veer off. Based on the above analysis, the key to prevent is mentioned. The risk management methods of civil aircraft landing runway excursion are proposed from a systems perspective. The aircraft landing runway excursion Bow-tie figure is drawn to describe the causes and consequences of landing runway excursion as well as the corresponding preventive and control measures.