Research On Accident Factors Of Lithium Batteries Air Transportation And Accidents Prediction

The China civil aviation industry is developing rapidly now and is planning the stride forward from large aviation industry to power one. This relies not only on the transportation volume growth of passengers and goods, but also the progress of science and technology in civil aviation. The volume of dangerous goods transported by air has been in high level these years in China, so advanced management and transportation technology are needed in order to guarantee the safety of civil aviation and prevent accidents. Lithium batteries are widely used in society, which prompts lithium batteries become the largest volume dangerous goods transported by air. The specific environment of air transportation makes lithium batteries which are flammable and explosive more dangerous. Lithium batteries transported by air have drawn universal concern in civil aviation industry.Most of the researches about lithium batteries transported by air study on the accident factors of lithium battery cargo. Researches on the lithium batteries taken by passengers are limited. The main content of the research is divided into three parts:(1)Analyze the predecessors' researches on lithium battery cargo and establish a accident factor set. Find the weak links of lithium battery cargo air transportation based on predecessors' research and practical experience;(2)Build a accident factor set of lithium batteries taken by passengers transported by air. According to the factor set, a questionnaire survey of air transportation safety of passenger-taken lithium batteries was conducted to find out the relation between these factors. In order to get the importance rank of these factors, the Analytic Network Process(ANP) and Super Decisions software(SD) are adopted to model and calculate these factors. Some improvement suggestions are put forward at last;(3)Based on the lithium battery accident data and the development of civil aviation, GM(1,1) prediction model was used to predict development trend of lithium battery accidents, results of which can provide reference for transportation safety of lithium battery in the future.