Analysis On Gas Load Of Changping District In Beijing

Residents living environment is the basic premise of the quality of life,and natural gas as a clean energy application is becoming more and more popular,and natural gas industry has developed rapidly.Gas load is usually refers to the future of a certain time or period of the gas to consumption.In the process of city gas use,effective accurate projections for gas load is the prerequisite of realizing safe and rational use of natural gas.How to accurately predict the gas load of the city has become the current fuel gas undertakings an significant issue.After the time of home study,gas load forecasting method theory also obtained greater development.At present in view of the city gas load forecast more method,however,in the actual situation of various conditions,how to select the appropriate forecast method is the focus of numerous scholars,because of the actual situation of some methods for different possible prediction efficiency is not high,the precision is not enough,the problem such as lack of rationality.Therefore,must be based on the actual situation of predicting regional and objective environment,select the most appropriate method,it is the premise of accurate prediction results were achieved.In this paper,in view of the city gas load forecasting to do the following research: first of all,the scholars at home and abroad for the gas load forecasting methods have investigated the current situation of the research,and the typical city gas load forecasting methods are reviewed,mainly including the basic concept,principle,process and forecast method,etc.Second,the method of gas load forecast has carried on the detailed elaboration,and has made the comparison and analysis of various methods.For different methods,need according to the specific regional situation and the existing historical data to select the appropriate method,can obtain the more accurate results.Finally,aiming at changping district of Beijing gas use present situation and the historical data,this paper USES the index analysis method of gas load of changping district is forecasted,and USES the partial least squares method and elastic parameters for checking.Gas load forecasting can effectively guide gas planning of changping district,to optimize the energy consumption structure,changping district,and improve the atmospheric environment has important significance.