Evaluation Of Navigation Safety In Port Water Area Based On Fuzzy Analytic Network Process

With the rapid development of China's economy in recent years,maritime transportation has been booming.As an important part of the maritime transportation system,the navigation safety of waters under the jurisdiction of the port is a significant foundation stone to ensure the safety of maritime transportation.Therefore,carrying out the research on the safety evaluation of port navigation is contributive to improve the safety level of maritime transportation,and it is of great theoretical and practical significance.The navigation safety of port waters is a complex and uncertain issue influenced by many factors such as human,ship,environment,and management and so on.Through reading and investigating the previous relevant literature,it is found that many scholars tend to focus on only one aspect when studying the navigation safety of port waters,while they have not considered the mutual influence among the evaluation factors.Therefore,it is necessary to evaluate the navigation safety of port waters from a comprehensive perspective.Based on the above observations,this thesis adopts Fuzzy Analytic Network Process to carry out the evaluation research of navigation safety in port waters.First,through comprehensively considering the effect of four aspects--people,ship,environment and management,this thesis will determine the related factors affecting the navigation safety in port waters,and establish the port navigation safety evaluation index system,thus laying a sound foundation for analyzing navigation safety in port waters systematically and comprehensively.Then,this thesis will make sure the evaluation criteria in accordance with the evaluation index with the help of relative reference materials.After that,expert investigation method is used to set up the pairwise comparison matrix,and triangular fuzzy number is introduced to integrate experts' opinions in order to overcome people's subjectivity.Besides,this thesis makes use of The Analytic Network Process(ANP)to determine the weights that factors have influenced each other.Based on the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation model,Fuzzy Analytic Network Process model is established to analyze the navigation safety in port waters,which both taking the uncertainty of the system into account and balancing the mutual influence among the affecting factors.Next,this thesis will verify the validity of the model through the evaluation of the navigation safety in the water of Dalian port and the contrast with the results of traditional Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(F-AHP).Finally,this thesis compares and analyzes the weights respectively getting from The Analytic Network Process(ANP)and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)to obtain the important factors affecting the safety of the port navigation,thus proposing the corresponding suggestions,which provides a theoretical basis for improving the security of port navigation.