Research On Production Simulation Algorithm And Application Based On Monte Carlo Sequential Simulation

For sustainable economic and social development,the continuous supply of energy,new energy widely popularized in the power system,the modern power system with high proportion of new energy power generation is showing a new trend that traditional power system do not have,and also a lot of new problems,such as the problem of wind power acceptance and system peak regulation about power grid with large-scale wind power,the optimization of configuration and operation about hybrid AC/DC microgrid etc..According to the characteristics of the modern power system,the Monte Carlo method which is widely used in traditional power system is applied to solve new problems,new challenges the modern power system encountered,the application can not only inject vitality as the Monte Carlo simulation method,and can provide the theoretical support for the development of modern power system.In this paper,Monte Carlo simulation method is introduced and probabilistic modeling method of uncertain factors in modern power system is explained.On this basis,some of the problems in the development of large power grids and hybrid AC/DC microgrid are solved.For the power grid with large-scale wind power access,Monte Carlo simulation method is proposed to simulate the stochastic production of the power system.It is convenient to consider the time sequence of the power system operation and take account of the constraints and uncertainties in the power system operation.In addition to the traditional stochastic production simulation reliability index,the wind power accommodation capacity can be evaluated reliably and the reference for wind power large-scale grid-connected consumption can be provided.Based on the Monte Carlo simulation method,the optimal operation model of hybrid AC/DC microgrid with uncertainties is established,and the probability distribution and the influential factors of the evaluation index are obtained by simulation.Which provides the basis for the accurate prediction of uncertain factors and the simplification of hybrid AC/DC microgrid optimization model,which can provide reference for the operation optimization of hybrid AC/DC microgrid.