The Research Of Route Travel Time And Its Reliability

With the development of socio-economy,travelers demand to estimate the route travel time and its volatility accurately.Similarly,in the actual traffic control and management,the route travel time and its reliability become more and more important.Firstly,this paper analyzed the prediction model of the route travel time in urban road network.By studying the factors that affect the route travel time,this paper modeled travel time in the conditions of travel time without accidents and travel delay with random accidents.According to the traffic characteristics of intermittent traffic flow in the urban traffic networks,in the paper,the bureau of public roads function was modified and the parameters were calibrated according to different traffic status.By the analysis in the regular pattern and effect of the traffic accidents,this paper proposed to calculate the expected value of the delay by using probability theory.From the above results,the paper obtained the model of route travel time.This paper defined the concept of route travel time reliability based on the summary of route travel time reliability researches.Then the paper established the route travel time reliability evaluation index system and proposed quantitative models of each evaluation index.Finally,an example is given to prove the rationality of the algorithms and models,which proved that the travel time reliability index system can analyze operational reliability of different routes and give a comprehensive analysis about traffic characteristics of the different routes between same origin and destination points.This system could also provide the decision-making auxiliary information for the travelers and the road management agencies.