The Study Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity And Allocation In Lujiang County

Water is the source of life,is an indispensable basic resource for economic and social development.It has natural,social,economic and other multiple attributes.The utilization and protection of water resources are directly related to economic and social development,ecological environment improvement and people's health and life safety.In recent years,with the social economic development and the urbanization process and the rapid population growth,water consumption and sewage emissions continue to increase.The contradiction of water resources development with socialeconomic development,ecological environment protection is very prominent.Water resources will gradually become the bottleneck of social economic development and ecological environment protection.At present,the study of water resources carrying capacity and allocation are mainly concentrated in the province or city domain,and the study results in county area is few.Compared with the provincial and municipal areas,the water resources development and allocation in the county are more specific,the research object is also more diversified.This paper takes Lujiang County as the study area.On the basis of collecting the predecessors' data,a lot of field research is carried out,and the water resources carrying capacity and allocation of Lujiang County were studied.The main study contents and results are as follows:(1)A comprehensive evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on extension cloud theory is established,introduced the characteristic values of grade variables,and also defined the concept of weak carrying degree.The characteristic values of grade variables can provide Supplementary analysis for judged grade.The weak carrying degree can be used to identify the factors that weaken the water resources carrying capacity.(2)The water resources carrying capacity of Lujiang County in 2010~2014 was analyzed,and the horizontal and vertical contrasts were carried out with the radar map and the Arcgis map.The results show that in recent years,the development and utilization of water resources,water environment,social development and economic development have different degrees of progress,showed a steady development trend.At present,the water resource carrying capacity of Lujiang County is in the general carrying grade,water resources and socio-economic were coordinative developed.It is necessary to improve the awareness of water conservation in life and industry in the development process,and pay attention to the situation of water consumption and water used for ecological environment,to achieve the sustainable use of water resources(3)The water resources allocation model of Lujiang county with the BASIN module in MIKE HYDRO software,and simulated the third supply and demand balance in panning yaers on this basis.The results show that under the condition of third supply and demand balance,the water shortage would greatly reduced,but there still a lot of water shortage in drought years..In 2030,The water shortage is 432 million cubic meters in 95% guarantee rate.In order to fundamentally solve the problem of water shortage in Lujiang County,they must actively take measures to seek diverted water,constructs watersaving society,improve water use efficiency,increase income and reduce expenditures.(4)The water resources carrying capacity was evaluated with the extension cloud model after water resources allocation in planning years.The weak carrying index is mainly distributed in the criterion layer grade of water resources development and utilization.In the process of social and economic development,the water resources carrying capacity has not decreased obviously,The ecological environment has been paid more attention,and the trend of sustainable development of water resources is better.