Based On The Statistical Method Of Gan Jiang Yuan Water Resources Carrying Capacity And Safety Measures

With swift economic development and rapidly increasing world population since 21st century, the phenomena of water shortage and pollution is getting more and more severe. Therefore, study on water resource is apparently urgent and indispensable to national welfare and people's livelihood. It is paid great attention by countries all over the world and put on the agenda of sustainable development. In order to establish a scientific water managing system by analyzing water resource carrying capacity through valuing its dialectical relation to economic society, promote the consistent progress of social civilization and healthy development of ecological environment. However, the water resources carrying capacity has not formed a unified evaluation system, and many research methods have been restricted by the regional. Thus searching for a suitable method to a certain place has becoming a world research focus.Based on the statistical method which with advantage of reducing the subjective interference, and meanwhile catching the main point with minimal loss and modeling simple and comprehensive evaluation ,we start to explore the water resource carrying capacity. We estimated the water resource carrying capacity of the headstream of Ganjiang river basin in a full-scale and comprehensive way by analyzing the local physiognomy, social economy and history-related culture. Based on the water supply and demand status in this region, we stated the implication of water resource carrying capacity to the needs of population scale, resident livelihood, agriculture development, industry benefit and ecological environment. Datum adopted from the five factors above were treated by regression analysis, factor analysis, principal component analysis and entropy method, to evaluate the water resource carrying capacity of the headstream of Ganjiang river basin in a scientific, objective and transparent way, through calculate the economic carrying capacity and the population carrying capacity which under the control of the water resources can obtained the future development trend of the water resources carrying capacity.In this study, we found the water resource carrying capacity of the headstream of Ganjiang river basin had a stable alteration in recent ten years. It heads for a optimum and health trend as a whole since the alteration stability enhances with years except for a slight reduction in year 2004. However, the gaining rate was relatively small as the general score in 2009 was only 0.014 higher than it was in 2001. As the forecast pointed out, the economic society and the scale of population will get developed to a certain extent, which may bring the water resource carrying capacity to a downtrend, furthermore, the equilibrium index of supply and demand will decrease to 1.002, 1.218 in year 2015 and 0.979, 1.034 in year 2020, this is likely to inflict water source to a severe tension. Therefore, we bring forward some measures like improving the forest coverage, rainwater sources, wastewater treatment enhancement and other safety countermeasures to intensify the water resource carrying capacity in this area.The findings in this context provide information support for economy development and city planning in the local region and constructive advice for water source safety system. The analytic results in this study provides us the water resource carrying capacity information about local economy developing speed, population increasing scale and city's running rhythm, also as a valuable reference to comprehensive, harmonious and consistent water resource strategy. Meanwhile, through the deep research into the water resource in the headstream of Ganjiang river basin, it lays foundation for water resource safety ensuring system establishment, protects the source of Ganjiang river basin, balances water demands among upstream, midstream, downstream and other tributaries according to volume and quality, ensures the headstream of Ganjiang to develop without jeopardy the sustainable development of Ganjiang river basin as a integrate.