Investigation Of Ticket Pre-assignment Strategy On Railway Ticket Organization

Railway ticket organization strategy advances along with development of China economy,upgradation of railway technology and alternation of traveling demand.In recent years,railway constructions have achieved much progress in our country,great changes have taken place in railway passenger transport products.Hence,railway ticket organization strategy plays a more and more important role in railway passenger transport.In this thesis,the paper reviewed the historical process of railway ticket organization strategy,mainly including passenger flow forecast,revenue management and seat distribution.The paper pointed out that ticket pre-assignment act as the most vital strategy in railway ticket organization,provided the theoretical foundation and scientific evidence for ticket pre-assignment.Then the paper investigated key elements in ticket pre-assignment,including passenger flow forecast and ticket-shared in grouped stations.The paper proposed several strategies to solve the existing problems.Railway operating plan adjustments and other factors lead to data distortion and thus affect the use of ticket pre-assignment.Based on the time series prosperity of railway passenger flow,this thesis improved moving average algorithm,established the key station for passenger flow forecast and calculated the difference of the actual transmission which were normalized by capacities as the time series.At the same time,this thesis taken into account Passenger Load Factor and control coefficient to establish key station passenger flow forecast model.Based on key station passenger flow forecast model,this thesis established stations ticket-shared model and set some stations as a group for sharing ticket intelligently to meet the long-distance travel demand of small station passengers.Finally,the application of our model in Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway indicates that prediction values fit the actual value,and this model avoids impact by railway operating plan adjustment and other unfavorable factors on passenger flow forecast.Hence,prediction values is consistent with the ticket management ideas of railway bureau and the actual use of the ticket pre-assignment plan.Collectively,this model can reduce workload of ticket management and enhance intelligent degree of railway ticket organization strategy.