Research On Methods Of Project Schedule Risk Analysis And Resources Optimization

Schedule,quality and cost are three main control objectives of the project,in which schedule control has attracted much attention as the control key.If the schedule is out of control,the other two major goals will be affected.So it is particular important to do risk analysis and management for the large-scale projects.In the process of the implementation of the project,it is often influenced by the weather conditions,geological conditions,construction level,design changes and other risk factors.However,at present,the uncertainty of the activity duration is considered as the randomness to be analysed and the uncertainty of the fuzziness is ignored.In addition,no reasonable consideration is given to the relevance of the practical engineering-the correlation between activity durations and the correlation between the risk factors.Moreover,the traditional method of the resource optimization of the progress plan,take the variance as the optimization objective,attempting to eliminate all the resource fluctuations,which violates the basic rules of resource utilization in the project construction.In view of this,this paper has carried on the thorough research to the engineering project schedule risk analysis method and the schedule resources optimization,the main research content and the result including:Considering the correlation between the activity duration,the correlation between the risk factors and the fuzziness of activity duration,the fuzzy risk analysis model(FRAM)is proposed.Under the premise of considering the two kinds of correlation,this model disintegrates the fuzzy activity duration based on the risk factor influence degrees and state,then the fuzzy duration of the activity corresponding to each risk factor in each iteration is obtained,which is the basis for the calculation of the network to evaluate the uncertainty of the project duration.It can also analyze the sensitivity of the total project duration to different risk factors,so that the project management is more targeted for risk management,and effectively guide the implementation of the progress plan.The resource balancing problem of network schedule has been analysed deeply in the paper,it mainly discusses the influence of the employment and release of resources to the resource utilization curve in the construction process,and puts forward the ideal shape of resource intensity curve,which is in line with the characteristics of engineering progress.The resources are divided into two categories: acceptable fluctuation and non acceptable fluctuation.Using the new parameters to optimize the allocation of resources,and the use of particle swarm optimization algorithm to achieve the optimal solution search,verify the feasibility and rationality of the model.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy schedule risk analysis model is verified by the engineering examples.