Research On Methods Of Project Schedule Risk Analysis And Management

Schedule, quality and cost are three main control objectives of the project, inwhich schedule control has attracted much attention as the control key. Scheduleuncontrolled will affect the other two goals, which may not only result in a hugewaste of social resources, but also the quality of the project will be subject to differentdegrees of impact. So it is particular important to do risk analysis and management forthe large-scale projects. There are many project schedule risk analysis methodscurrently, but none of them consider two types of correlation comprehensively andaccurately in actual projects——correlation between the activities duration andcorrelation between risk factors, and none research on the issue of risk sensitivity forthe entire project or various activities. Moreover, the current commonly used criticalindex can’t reflect the criticality of the activities properly such as ACP, SI and ACI.Aimed at these problems, the thesis makes a deep study on risk analysis methodof the project schedule and activities’ critical computing, the main contents andachievements of the study include:(1) Study on schedule risk analysis method considering two types of correlationThe thesis proposed a schedule risk analysis method based on AHP and MonteCarlo techniques. This method can not only obtain the distribution of the entireproject duration, and then carry on schedule risk analysis, but also can analysis thesensitivity of entire project and activities for different risk factors, which will make iteasy for the project manager to do targeted risk management and guide the detailedimplementation schedule effectively.(2) activities’ critical indexAim at the defects that currently widely used of activities’ critical index such asACP, SI and ACI, the thesis proposes a new method to calculate the activities’ criticalindex that taking into account the fluctuation of activities’ duration, activities’ impacton the project schedule and the status of the activities in network——VES(Variability,Effect, State). Moreover, the thesis proposes a thought that allocate project managers’energy and resource according to the critical index of each activity, which will assistproject manager to execute schedule management.(3) Study on project schedule risk analysis and management systemBased on the proposed schedule risk analysis method that considered two types ofcorrelation and a new calculation method of activities importance index, combined with the thought of object oriented, the study develops the project schedule riskanalysis and management system.