Influence Factors Analysis And Load-forecasting Method Of New-type Towns Distribution System

With the development of society and economy,the demand for energy is increasing.As a kind of important and efficient secondary energy,electricity is inextricably linked with all aspects of our society.As an important part of the connection between power system and the users,distribution system directly affects the reliability,power quality and other aspects of consumers.At present,China is promoting the construction of new-type towns.Power system especially the distribution system plays a fundamental role in guaranteeing the development of new-type towns as a platform where various types of energy is converted and used efficiently.The development speed,construction quality,load growth of distribution system directly affect the construction of new-type towns.So,it is significant to build the influence factors analysis model and forecast the development trend of power load of new-type towns distribution system which is aiming at developing practical measures,reasonably planning and promoting a rapid and healthy development of new-type towns distribution system.The main work is as follows.1)In this thesis,an Interpretative Structural Model(ISM)of the influence factors of new-type towns distribution system is proposed and the main factors influencing the development and construction of new-type town distribution system are analysed,which provides reference for the development and construction of China's new-type towns distribution system.First,the collection of influence factors of new-type town distribution system is put forward and the interaction relationship of each influence factor is analysed to form the Reachability Matrix.According to the Reachability Matrix,the ISM of new-type towns distribution system influence factors is constructed.Next,in order to directly reflect the impact of each factor on the new-type towns distribution system,an extended AHP method is proposed in this thesis to calculate the weight of each influence factor.Finally,the analysis of two examples verifies the practicability and adaptability of the proposed method.2)A load forecasting method is proposed which is considering a variety of factors and suitable for the actual situation of new-type towns.The method consists of three parts: building the influence factors model of distribution system load forecasting,calculating the weight of influence factors,and forecasting the peak load of a year in the future.The load forecasting method uses correlation analysis,principal component analysis and regression analysis.On the basis of the algorithm,a load forecasting software is developed which gives full consideration to the characteristics of the new-type towns distribution system and achieves the previously described method.The load forecasting software can be better to complete the load forecasting tasks of new-type towns distribution system.