Study On Water Consumption Ecological Footprint And Polluted Water Ecological Footprint In Shanxi Province

Water is not only the basic natural resources of the human society survival and development,but also the important strategic resource of a country's economic development.It is also the key factors to impact the relationship between ecology and environment.Water crisis has become the important ecological factor to restrict the development of human society survival with the progress of human society and the development of economic.The contradiction between the supply and the demand of water resources has become more and more obvious and it is more serious in arid countries and areas.Shanxi is one of the most serious water shortage provinces in our country.The characteristic of Shanxi water resources is less amount,regional distribution.Water pollution and water ecological environment of Shanxi has become more and more worse as the over-exploitation of groundwater,residents' weak consciousness of water-saving the unreasonable water resources utilization and the obvious contradiction between supply and demand of water resources.It is a serious threat to the security of people's water consumption.Therefore,It is necessary to manage and plan water resources utilization,improve residents water-saving awareness,strength water pollution management,improve the utilization efficiency of water resources to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources.In this article,the water ecological footprint model,polluted water ecological footprint model and ecological capacity model are used to analyze water resources dynamic variations and the evaluation indexes of water resources sustainable development and utilization is used to analyze the situation of water resources of Shanxi Province from 2005 to 2015.The LMDI model is used to analyze the driving factor of the water consumption ecological footprint.Finally,the Curvilinear Regression is used to predict the water consumption ecological footprint and the polluted water ecological footprint dynamic changing trends of Shanxi form2016 to 2020.The results showed that:(1)The annual average water consumption ecological footprint of Shanxi is 0.3084 hm2 per person not reaching half level of our country 0.7367 hm2 per person which showed thatthe water consumption of Shanxi is less than China and has been increasing trend from 2005 to 2015.The Irrigation water consumption accounts for 59.87%and takes great proportion in the total ecological footprint of water consumption followed by the industrial water consumption accounts for 21.75%.(2)The annual average water ecological capacity of Shanxi is 0.0358 hm2 per person which accounts for 2.75% of the country.It showed that water resources is extreme shortage in Shanxi.The water ecological capacity showed gradually rising from 2005 to 2015 and reached a maximum of 0.0595 hm2 per person in 2013 and a minimum of 0.0208 hm2 per person in 2011.The largest water ecological capacity is 0.0930 hm2 per person in Jincheng and the smallest is 0.0139 hm2 per person in Taiyuan.They have 66 times difference,which showed that the region of water ecological capacity is very different in Shanxi.(3)The polluted water ecological footprint which has a falling trend is much higher than water consumption ecological footprint,and the annual average is 0.4904 hm2 per person.The polluted water consumption has been in a state of ecological deficit.And the ecological pressure indexes are much higher than the critical value of water resources pressure index 1from 2010 to 2015,which indicated that the existing water supply is unable to meet the water demand for natural purification of the sewage discharged water.It is showed that the polluted water cannot be ignored to lead water crisis.Therefore,there are two second accounts in water consumption ecological footprint.The polluted water consumption and the structure water consumption are much closed the actual water shortage situation.(4)The annual average water ecological deficit is 0.274 hm2 per person and showed an increasing from 2005 to 2015.The water ecological pressure indexes are much higher than the critical value of water resources pressure index 1,which showed water resources had been under great ecological security status in Shanxi.The average load index of water resources is15.69,which is more than 10 and belong to class ?.It indicated that the water consumption is greater than the supply in Shanxi province,the development potential is smaller and smaller and a large number of water diversion from the outside is needed for demand.The annual average water ecological footprint per 104 yuan GDP of Shanxi is 0.1363 hm2 which accounts for 48.89% of the country and has a decreasing trend.It showed that there is an important relationship for improving the utilization ratio of water resources with developing green economy,adjusting the industrial structure,increasing investment in science and technology.(5)The study of the LMDI showed that the driving factor of water ecological footprint includes economic effect,technical effect,structure effect and population effect.Thedecomposition value of economic effect,population effect and structural effect are greater than zero,which boost the growth of the water ecological footprint and obstruct the sustainable utilization and development of water resources in Shanxi.The decomposition value of technology effect are less than zero,which restrict the growth of the water consumption ecological footprint and play a positive role to the sustainable utilization of water resources in Shanxi.(6)The Curvilinear Regression is used to select the best curve estimation model to predict the dynamic changing trends of water consumption ecological footprint and polluted water ecological footprint in Shanxi.The model of water consumption ecological footprint is cubic function(y=0.114-0.016*(x-2004)+0.004*(x-2004)2+0.0000198*(x-2004)3)with coefficient R2 0.867,and the model of polluted water ecological footprint is quadratic(y=1902.385-2.373*(x-2009)-8.006*(x-2009)2)with coefficient R2 0.988.It is showed that the water ecological footprint and the polluted water ecological footprint have a falling trend on the base of the two models.