| Water is not only a special material on the planet, but also the material basis of life and production. Sustainable development of economy and ecological development are inseparable from water resources.Wuwei is of great significance to the ecological security in Hexi Region, it locates in the middle of Hexi Corridor and in the south of Badan Jilin desert. Drought weather, desertification and wind and sand damage are the major natural threats to Wuwei, which restrict badly the industrial and agricultural development and affect the peple,s normal life. Agriculture is the basis of economic development in Wuwei, which the use of water resource is reasonable is related to agricultural development. So it has a far-reaching significance to make a quantitative analysis and prediction for the water resources of Wuwei.This paper used the ecological footprint proposed by Rees to calculate water resources ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, water resources ecological deficit, scissors and other indexes of Wuwei according to data from 2005 to 2014, mea nwhile analyzed the factors affecting water resources sustainable development by the method of correlation analysis and path analysis, finally predicted the industry water resources of next decade by gray prediction model and put forward some suggestions. The research shows that(1)During 2005-2014, the water resources ecological footprint per capital in Wuwei showed an overall decreasing trend. It appeared the highest value 1.9694 hm2 per capital in 2008 and dropped to 1.511277 hm2 per capital in 2014, and decreased by 18.14 percent compared with 2005.(2)During 2005-2014, the water resources ecological carrying capacity per capital in Wuwei appeared to overall downward trend, the maximum value was arrived 0.482hm2 each person in 2005 and the lowest value was 0.2444 hm2 each person in 2009.(3)During 2005-2014, the water resources ecological deficit per capital in Wuwei showed obviously increasing trend, the highest value was arrived-1.637hm2 per capital in 2008 and the rate of rise was up to 19.99%. Scissors analysis, which difference between the water resources ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity, showed an increasing trend and water resources deficit remained serious.(4)During 2005-2014, the 104 yuan GDP water resources ecological footprint in Wuwei showed a downward trend, from 0.013019 hm2 per capital in 2005 to 0.003723hm2 per capital in 2014, the rate of decline was up to 71.4%. The result indicated that the utilization rate of water resources has increased annually. Ecological pressure index was more than 3 during 10 years and shows an upward trend, which indicates water resources were in an unsafe condition.(5)During 2005-2014, the proportion of agriculture water resources ecological footprint showed a downward trend in Wuwei. It reached 1.650791hm2 per capital in 2008 and 0.932335 hm2 per capital in 2014, the rate of decline was 43.52%. Industry water resources ecological footprint and ecology water resources ecological footprint presented a rising trend. The trend of domestic water consumption was not obvious from 2005 to 2014 in Wuwei. Otherwise sewage ecological footprint showed an increasing trend and the rate of upward was 137.7% from 2005 to 2014 in Wuwei City.(6)Based on the SPSS software and path analysis, The fa ctors affecting water resources ecological footprint were analyzed in Wuwei, and the results showed that agricultural water, domestic water and the number of the population have a great impact on the overall water resources ecological footprint in Wuwei, specially, agricultural water consumption has a serious impact on the other factors.(7)Based on the water resources ecological footprint of Wuwei from 2005 to 2014, this paper predicted the total water resources and other industry water resources of Wuwei City by gray prediction model for the next six years. The results showed that water demand in Wuwei City continued to increase over the next six years, supply and demand was still very sharp, so we must adjust the industrial structure, promote the development of green agriculture, allocate the industrial water scientifically and rationally and improve water utilization to achieve the sustainable development of water resources. |
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