| With the rapid development of social economy,rural settlements,as an important carrier of life and work for farmers,their spatial distribution is continually changing,but it has caused various problems such as scattered layout,low utilization and less reasonable layout during their evolution,also these problems have become the serious stumbling block to the rational development of land use,so the reasonable forecasting and planning for rural settlements will be the inevitable demand to solve the rural land problems.If we can plan and adjust the rural settlements scientifically,and make the simulation of the rural settlements layout evolution more practically and scientifically,it will be more conducive to achieve the efficient allocation of the urban and rural land resources,also it will ease the pressure of land use,improve the rural ecological structure,optimize people's living environment.In recent years,the GIS technology develops rapidly,and it has gradually developed from a single platform for the space analysis and processing to using a variety of technology integration for various spatial layout evolution research,also it has developed from the simulation only supported by the geographic data to the quantitative analysis that combined spatial data with socio-economic data,and the related research has entered to a deeper level.The research of rural settlements layout evolution is a result that caused by many factors,but conventional research only work on the spatial data analysis and simulation,although there is no lack of geographic factors and socioeconomic factors combine research analysis,however,on this basis,taking into account the willingness to study the farmers themselves change impacts on rural residential land is relatively small.From the multi-dimensional factors on rural residential layout driving forces of evolution enrich the content of this piece of research,which is an innovative point of this paper.First,the article separately studied the natural factors which based on geographic data and social factors which mainly based on the farmers-government survey and social-economic data.And this article selected 12 driving force factors,relying on MATLAB software platform,to establish a model named ANN-CA-Agent that can predict the land utilization scale of Yixing.This model can make the MATLAB and ArcGIS connected though the programming,and use the repast tools to display,to establish a complete multi-agent model,thereby completing the study of rural settlement spatial layout evolution of Yixing.And the input layer of this model include 18 data layer combined by 12 driving and 6 kinds of land,the output layer include 6 data layer which are 6 kinds of land.Then,Construction and testing the use of Yixing City in 2000 and 2010 to complete the status of land use data model,application of rural residential space layout Evolution Multi-Agent Model 2010 Yixing rural residential layout evolution projections indicate,status data for 2010 and forecast data high similarity,simulation accuracy better.Wherein the point accuracy reached 69.51 percent,shows that the simulation model reasonably and can be used to predict.Using the model to simulate the land in 2020,to give rural residential land and agricultural land to urban construction land conversion,rural residential land area dropped,a substantial increase of urban construction land,this result can be used as a reference of Yixing rural residential land planning.The study of the model ANN-CA-Agent in this article will enrich the theory and methods to predict and simulate rural settlements layout simulation,and it will provide an auxiliary reference value for rural settlements layout planning,and it achieves innovation of theoretical approach to a certain extent.There are still less research on multi-agent on rural settlements land use changes,and the scale model during the study,the prediction accuracy and scientific nature are subject to further discussion and development. |
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