Study On Expressway Traffic Forecast And Financial Benefits Post-evaluation

In recent years,expressway has a high-speed development because of China’s rapid economic development.The expressway mileage of China reached 96,000 km in 2012,more than the expressway mileage for 92,000 km of the United States,ranking first in the world.In the end of 2016,the expressway mileage of China has reached 130,000 km.China has such a huge infrastructure assets in the actual operation process Expressway,which need post-evaluation of expressway for project decision.Through the post-evaluation of expressway,it can provide a decision basis for expressway operation and investment.It can also provide a more reliable scientific basis for other construction projects making decision in the future on planning,design,construction,management and other aspects.Consequently,the post-evaluation for expressway project is very necessary.In this paper,in reference to the extensive literature and research results,a study on expressway traffic forecast and financial benefits post-evaluation is made.Firstly,this paper introduces the basic ideas,the related theories and methods of traffic forecast,through the study of the highway traffic forecasting methods systematicly,and then,establish traffic forecasting model based on the study of "four-stage method" of traffic forecast.Secondly,establish toll revenue and cost forecast models based on the operation and maintenance theory of expressway.Thirdly,establish financial analysis model and study the post-evaluation of financial benefits based on the financial theory.Finally,take the south section of Suiyue expressway in Hubei province for example,to forecast the traffic flow and evaluate the financial benefits after operation of the south section of Suiyue expressway.The studies have shown that,the theoretical system and method established in this paper,which befittingly combined with the actual,is strongly operable,and has good practical application value.The article provides basis for making decision related to the follow-up study of expressway planning,construction,operations,investments,reconstruction and other aspects.It can also provide a reference with a higher value for making decision for highway projects in the future,and improve scientific level of decision-making on expressway project.