Research On The Traffic Analysis And Prediction In Highway Post-evaluation Project

Highway plays an important role in Chinese transportation system, because itscharacteristics of fast speed, less accident and high efficiency. Since the beginning of the21stcentury, lots of money has been invested in the infrastructure construct, including highways.However, a lot of problems appeared in the actual operation. So it is necessary topost-evaluate for expressway construction projects. It can find some problems of the previousconstruction projects, and make to analysis and summarize deeply, finally the more reliablescientific basis for future decision-making, design, construction and management of otherconstruction projects was provided.Highway traffic volume size is an important index in evaluating the constructionnecessity and construction technology standard. Therefore, in the highway constructionproject evaluation (including feasibility study and evaluation), the vision of traffic volumeforecast is one of the important part. To the investigation of the present situation of highwaytransportation, and to forecast the prospect of highway traffic volume, and to compare withthe engineering feasibility study traffic volume forecast, it become some basic research workin post project evaluation. Traffic volume forecast and evaluation of highway constructionprojects will directly influence the evaluation conclusion.On the basis of reading a lot of reference materials, this paper mainly studies thepost-evaluation of expressway traffic forecast. First it introduces the basic ideas and theoriesof traffic forecast, especially the implement method in the various stages of the four-stagemethod. Then the four-stage method is applied to forecast the traffic flow of Weihai～Wuhaihighway as an example, and that exhibit the whole process of traffic flow forecast. Finally itcompare the traffic flow of project feasibility with the traffic flow of actual operation andpost-evaluation, and analyzes the causes of differences, and some corresponding suggestionsand perfecting the system of project proposal are put forward, it provides available referencebasis for the expressway project decision.