Study Of Simulation For Urban Land Expansion Based On GIS And MAS

In today's rapidly developing society,the change of urban land use is an important research direction of urbanization,and it has been a hot topic among scholars both at home and abroad.The city as a social,economic and cultural highly integrated space performance,to protect all kinds of human production and life activities.Because of the rapid economic development,population growth and the influence of agricultural population,the city needs to constantly adjust the land use pattern and distribution to meet the needs of the city's internal functions.At the same time,due to the rapid development of the city,a variety of problems followed,which seriously hindered the development of the city.The expansion of urban land use is the interaction between the micro subjects involved in the expansion of urban land and the interaction with the geographical environment.Therefore,the relationship between the primary task is to clear the micro subject,and how to make the decision-making behavior,decision-making behavior how to affect the city land type transformation,thus the “bottom-up” of city land pattern simulation.In this paper,the center of Southern Xinjiang—central urban area of Akesu city was chosen as the experimental area,and a series of studies were carried out accordingly.The main contents are as follows:(1)The characteristics and driving mechanism of urban land expansion.The features of the city land expansion in central urban area of Akesu city were analyzed,and 11 representative social and economic factors were used to do correlation analysis,principal component analysis and regression analysis with urban land.The research showed that the scale and speed of urban land expansion had obvious phase characteristics,showing the trend of increasing first and then decreasing.The main macro drivers of urban land expansion include economic growth,population growth,restructuring of the industry and social development.(2)The model construction based on multi-agent modeling technology.First of all,the author analyzed the behavior subjects involved in urban land expansion process,and expounded the relationship between individual behavior and urban landuse pattern,the division of Agent type and the interaction between Agent.On this basis,an individual spatial decision-making model of MAS urban land expansion was constructed.Finally,the spatial change model of land use type was realized by combining the local feature analysis of the spatial environment based on the geographically weighted regression model.(3)Model simulation under Netlogo6.0 simulation environment.Based on the grid data of urban land in central urban area of Akesu city in 2009,the change of urban land use from 2009 to 2014 was simulated,and the simulation results of urban land use in 2014 were obtained.The simulation results were tested from both global and local perspectives.The results showed that the simulation results were in little different from the real results in global space,but there were some differences in the local space.The difference was because the model focuses on the use of Agent in the location choice preference and geographical environment of policy and industry experience,economic regulation sudden reality inconsiderate,at the same time,also showed that some human economic activities were not controllable.(4)Application of urban land expansion model.According to the Akesu city planning and land use planning,especially the city land use evolution,type conversion mechanism and the future development of the situation,were constructed by the characteristic factor,the global feature of local space factor,policy factor.On this basis,the main line of the planning scenario was constructed with the overall economic and social development as the main line.Then,the evolution of urban land use was simulated under three scenarios,and the distribution plots of urban land under three scenarios were obtained.And the introduction of landscape pattern index and urban land intensive use level evaluation for comparative analysis.The results showed that the high speed economic and social development had great influence on the landscape pattern of urban land.With the rapid economic growth,population growth and the economic center of gravity toward the two or three industry and the urbanization rate,both the scale and the growth rate of urban land would continue to grow rapidly.The simulation of urban land expansion provided an effective suggestion for future land use.