Study On Water Resources Carrying Capacity And Regulation Model In Jinta Basin

Water is an indispensable natural resource for human life and socio-economic development and the shortage of water resources will restrict the development of society.Then it is an urgent problem for the current society to solve the problem of water resources shortage and keep balance between supply and demand in society,economy and population development.Based on that,the paper analyzes the water resources,population and socioeconomic of Jinta basin in detail,and studies the water resources carrying capacity from 2005 to 2016 with vector model.Besides,System Dynamics(SD)model is used to predict the evolution from year 2017 to 2030 of the region's water resources carrying capacity.Through the study,some conclusions can be drawn:(1)Through the analysis of the water quantity of Yuanyangchi Reservoir from 1960 to 2014,the results show that the water amount of Yuanyangchi Reservoir is mainly concentrated from July to August,the amount of water from July to August accounts for 26.33% of the total annual amount.From 1960 to 2014,the amount of water is declining as a rate of 0.124 × 10~8 m~3 / 10 a.The flow of the Yuanyangchi reservoir is obviously periodic at 15 a time scale,and it has experienced four cycles of "more-less-more-less".(2)The gray system model,the Markov Chain and the BP Neural Network methods were used to predict the monthly reservoir inflow and the total volume of coming water of Yuanyangchi Reservoir from 2017 to 2030.By using the yearly average runoff as a standard,the reasonable forecast results were obtained.It shows that the total amount of water of Yuanyangchi Reservoir in 2020,2025 and 2030 are 3.25 × 10~8m~3,3.24 ×10~4m~3 and 3.22×10~8m~3.(3)The water resources carrying capacity of the Jintan Basin is showing a slow upward trend,changed from-0.0424(2005)to 0.0269(2016).During 2005 to 2011,the water resource carrying condition of the Jintan Basin is beyond its carrying capacity,which means the demand for water resources is greater than the water supply.From 2012 to 2016,the index value is 0.01 ~ 0.03.It shows that the regional water resources carrying capacity is in the critical state,which means water supply can basically meet the requirement.(4)Simulating the water carrying capacity of Jinta basin from 2017 to 2030 by using the system dynamics(SD)model.The results show that under the current development model,the water resources carrying condition of the Jintan Basin will beyond its carrying capacity in 2017,while in which the total population,the regional GDP and the total water supply quantity are 12.7 × 104 people,109 × 10~8 RMB and 4.28 ×10~8 m~3.(5)Selecting population and water consumption as early warning indicators of water resource carrying capacity,when the population and water consumption were 12.7 × 104 peolpe,4.28 × 10~8 m~3,the water resources carrying capacity was about to be overloaded.As water supply source,the dead water level of Yuanyangchi Reservoir(1310m)is the warning water level of the basin.(6)The multi-objective programming model is used to establish the water resources regulation model in the Jinta basin,which may obtain the reasonable optimal allocation of water resources under the premise of ensuring life and ecological water use.So that the economic,social and environmental benefits are optimized.In 2020,The total water supply quantity in Jinta basin is 32870×10~4m~3,the total water requirement is 33102×10~4m~3 and the water shortage is 232×10~4m~3;In 2020,The total water supply quantity is 32640×10~4m~3,the total water requirement is 33086×10~4m~3 and the water shortage is 446×10~4m~3;In 2020,The total water supply quantity is 32690×10~4m~3,the total water requirement is 33598×10~4m~3 and the water shortage is 232×10~4m~3?Domestic,industrial and ecological water use can get sustainable guarantee and the water shortage is mainly reflected in agricultural irrigation.