Multi-objective Model-based Water Resources Carrying Capacity Study

With the rapid development of society and economy, people develop and exploit water resources for society expanding. But with the rapid development of society and people's living level, all over the world to be faced with serious water resources crisis because of the unreasonable development. China as a great power of the population in the world, and also as a big developing country, faces to more serious water resources crisis. Water is the basic of all living things and ecological environment's evolution, its influence of holding living and non-living——can not be compared.The research of water resources carrying capacity refer to all aspects of society and economy system, nature water resources system and ecological environment system, it is a typical complex system question. Water resources carrying capacity is the key for sustainable development of one country or an area, its dimensions determines rate and scale of economy development.The thesis summarizes achievements at home and abroad first, studies the relationship between water resources, society and economy, population and ecological environment, expounds the relationship between water resources carrying capacity and sustainable development, stress that the study of water resources carrying capacity must be carried under sustainable development strategy truss, analyze and summarize the concept of water resources carrying capacity. And analyze and compare several methods in water resources carrying capacity's research, summarize the questions in water resources carrying capacity's research and point out the study direction in the future.Secondly, the thesis studies the basic theory of water resources carrying capacity, on the basis of our country's water resources carrying capacity target, proposes the multi-purpose evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity. As the view of sustainable development, considers the complex relationship in society and economy, population, ecological environment and water resources, classifies indexes of water resources carrying capacity evaluation model. The paper take Dianchi basin for an example, with the statistics indexes in "KUNMING YEARBOOK", forecasts the using indexes, with economic benefits, environment benefits and population as objection and macroeconomic, water supply, environmental capacity and population as constraint conditions, build the multi-purpose evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity, calculates Dianchi basin water resources carrying capacity by using MATLAB software. The result explains that multi-purpose evaluation model could reflect Dianchi basin water resources condition better.Finally, according to the result of model, the paper evaluate and analyze Dianchi basin water resources carrying capacity, bring up the suggestion and strategy of Dianchi basin water resources sustainable using by combining the actual condition of Dianchi basin, centering on resources sustainable using and targeting on basin sustainable development.