Analysis Of Water Resources Supply And Demand Balance In Lijiang Based On WEAP Model

Lijiang City is located at the junction of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau,has a complex topography and high elevation drop.Lijiang City is a typical mountainous city in southwest China,the development and utilization of water resources are difficult,the utilization rate of water resources is low.At the same time,Lijiang City has the serious problems of seasonal water shortage,engineering water shortage,management water shortage,in recent years,it has experienced frequent catastrophic droughts.And the balance of sustainable use of water resources was broken along with the rapid development of economy,especially tourism.Therefore,the study to solve the water crisis in Lijiang City should be carried out vigorously,these studies play a strong role of scientific support for government decision-making.The optimal allocation of water resources is the most effective means to solve the problems of development and utilization of water resources.The establishment of water resources supply and demand simulation system in Lijiang,and the analysis of water resources supply and demand balance,can provide the necessary tools and reference information for the study of this region,to promote the water resources management and planning research of whole southwest China.In this paper,being basing on water resources evaluation and planning model(Water Evaluation and Planning System,WEAP),using water use data of the three main industries and relevant statistical data of social economy in 2010 of Lijiang city,the analysis model of water resources supply and demand balance in Lijiang is established,With this model,simulate the the surface water resources system and analyze the distribution of surface water of the whole city,then verify the applicability of this model in research area.According to the Lijiang's future economic development planning and climate change scenarios,forecast the supply and demand of water resources of Lijiang city in 2030.Based on the results of this study,put forward the corresponding suggestions for the management of water resources and the following research direction.The progress and conclusions of the research are as follows:(1)Based on WEAP model,establish the analysis model of water resources supply and demand balance in Lijiang,estimate the key parameters by relevant data,improved the simulation ability and credibility of the model in the study area.(2)In 2010,the demand water of Lijiang City was 726 million cubic meters.Agriculture was the main water demand,accounting for 70% of total water demand,and 18% of the water demand had not been met.(3)Due to the development of society and economy,the gap rate of water supply and demand in Lijiang City would be 25% or more by 2030.And it would be widen more than 2% in case of climate change.