Research On Strategies Of Arrival Flight Schedule In Terminal Areas Under The Condition Of Uncertainty

With the increasing of air traffic flow,the airspace resource become scare and more uncertain factors emerge in the terminal areas.Dealing with uncertain conditions effectively and developing dynamic traffic flow management strategies have received more and more attention.With the analysis on the traffic flow characteristics of terminal area under the condition of uncertainty,the arrival flight sequencing method is optimized and the robustness of sequencing of arrival aircrafts in terminal areas against unexpected disturbances is improved.So the research could effectively ensure the flight stability and efficiency of air traffic management.Firstly,on the basis of the best acceptance rate constraint on reference points and optimal scheduling algorithm for control centers,a distributed flight scheduling structure and process is proposed.The optimal arrival order and scheduled arrival time in reference points is calculated for every flight.Taken actual operation constraints into consideration,a flight scheduling model based on Eulerian model is constructed which maximizes flight rate of outflow and minimizes flight delays in control centers.Secondly,a robust control model for terminal arrival flight scheduling is proposed,and a loop feedback control system between controller and pilot is designed to reduce the impact of uncertainty in the process of arrival scheduling.In accordance with sequence strategy and robust optimization criteria under different scenarios,arrival order and time sort is assigned to arrival flights.The result of robust optimization is fully compared and analyzed.Finally,the Monte-Carlo simulation method is applied to describe the statistical characteristics of random variables related to operation conditions of flights,and the value of objective function derived from the simulation model is expressed as expected value of the random simulation procedure.A Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm(NSGA-II)is designed to solve the optimization problem and search the Pareto optimal solution.Pareto frontier fitting curve for a range of uncertainty buffer are plotted under multiple thresholds.The impact of multiple thresholds for uncertainty buffer on flight delays and controller interventions is analyzed.