The Rural Household Level Empirical Study On The Agricultural Drought Disaster Vulnerability

As result of the climate change and its impacts, recently more and more researchers have been focusing on the applications of the vulnerability and resilience for the impact assessment. However, the study of the disaster vulnerability is just rising in recent years in China compared with other countries. And from the existing researches, there are little about the disaster vulnerability on the rural household, who are the direct victims of these agricultural disaster no matter in domestic or abroad.What's more, if we know nothing about the agricultural disaster vulnerability of the rural household, which means we know nothing about the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of them to the agricultural disaster, then it would be hard for us to make scientific risk assessments and give some specific recommendations on disaster prevention and reduction.So for the above reasons by using the recent progress on the study of the disaster vulnerability for reference both in home and abroad, the paper constructs a set of evaluation index system and a model which combined with the means of AHP and Entropy Method from the rural household level. In addition, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the agricultural drought disaster vulnerability from basic statistical analysis and multivariate statistical analysis using the rural household level data of the Zengdu District. The results show:(1)the drought disaster is the main local agricultural disaster, which greatly impacts the local peasants in both ways of life and production, but the influential degrees are different;(2)most peasants take negative adaptive behaviors when facing the agricultural drought disaster, and just a little of them would take active defensive behaviors.(3) the mild level of agricultural drought disaster vulnerability villages are these which have better farm irrigation facilities,with flat terrain,the income of the rural household family is high, and the family labor force is adequate.(4)the labor capacity of the head of the household and the agricultural loan are remarkably correlative with the agricultural drought disaster vulnerability of the rural household,but the education level and age of the head of the rural household and the disaster subsidies are not.