Prediction Of The Potential Suitable Geographic Distribution Of Seven Chinese Forestry Quarantine Pests

Hyphantria cunea?Cydia pomonella?Dendroctonus valens?Heterobostrychus aequalis?Xylotrechus rusticus?Phenacoccus solenopsis?Carpomya vesuviana are all important forestry quarantine pests in China.To provide the basis for the efficiency of quarantine,supervision and control,their suitable distribution regions were predicted.The biological and geographical distribution points data of seven forestry quarantine pests were collected and collated in this paper,combined with environment variables,the maximum entropy MaxEnt model and the geographic information system ArcGIS 10.0 software were used to predict its suitable distribution in the World in the current climate,and predict the changes of its suitable distribution and area in China in the current and future climate conditions.The suitable areas of Hyphantria cunea in the World are mainly concentrated in the northern hemisphere,its suitable areas in China are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central regions.The environmental variables that have important impact on the distribution of the suitable area of H.cunea are the Precipitation of the wettest month(bio13),the average temperature of the wettest quarter(bio8)and the lowest temperature of the coldest month(bio6).In the climate change conditions,the future suitable area of H.cunea will spread to the south.The current area of H.cunea is 662.93×10~4km~2 in China,in the future,the overall trend of the suitable area is reduced.Cydia pomonella in the World has a wide range of suitable areas and high-suitable,its suitable areas in China are mainly concentrated in the northeast,northwest,north,east,and central regions.The environmental variables that have important impact on the distribution of the suitable area of C.pomonella are the seasonal temperature standard deviation(bio4),the highest temperature of the warmest monthand(bio5)and the average annual temperature range(bio7).In the climate change conditions,the future suitable area of C.pomonella will spread to south.The current area of C.pomonella is 759.47×10~4km~2 in China.In the future,the trend of the suitable area is reduced.The suitable areas of Dendroctonus valens in the World are mainly concentrated in the northern temperate zone,its suitable areas in China are mainly concentrated in the north and southwest regions.The environmental variables that have important impact on the distribution of the suitable area of D.valens are the lowest temperature of the coldest month(bio6),the precipitation of the wettest quarter(bio16)and the average annual temperature range(bio7).In the climate change conditions,the future suitable area of D.valens will spread to the north.The current area of D.valens is 682.75×10~4km~2 in China,in the future,the area of suitable areas shows a decrease in the RCP4.5 climate conditions in 2050s and 2070s,and an increase in the RCP8.5 climate conditions in 2050s and 2070s.The suitable areas of Heterobostrychus aequalis in the World are mainly concentrated in the tropical areas,its suitable areas in China are mainly concentrated in the southern region.The environmental variables that have important impact on the distribution of the suitable area of H.aequalis are the average annual temperature(bio1),the average annual temperature range(bio7)and the precipitation of the driest month(bio14).In the climate change conditions,the future suitable area of H.aequalis will spread to the north.The current area of H.aequalis is 208.33×10~4km~2 in China;in the future,the trend of the suitable area is enlarged.The suitable areas of Xylotrechus rusticus in the World and in China all have very extensive and a higher suitability.The environmental variables that have important impact on the distribution of the suitable area of X.rusticus are the seasonal temperature standard deviation(bio4),the precipitation of the wettest month(bio13)and the lowest temperature of the coldest month(bio6).In the climate change conditions,the future suitable area of X.rusticus will spread to the south and southwest.The current area of X.rusticus is869.83×10~4km~2 in China,in the future,the overall trend of the suitable area is enlarged.The suitable areas of Phenacoccus solenopsis in the World and in China all have very extensive and high-suitable.The environmental variables that have important impact on the distribution of the suitable area of P.solenopsis are the average annual temperature(bio1),the lowest temperature of the coldest month(bio6)and the precipitation of the driest month(bio14).In the climate change conditions,the future suitable area of P.solenopsis will spread to the north.The current area of P.solenopsis is 877.22×10~4km~2 in China.In the future,the overall trend of the suitable area is reduced.The suitable areas of Carpomya vesuviana in the World have very extensive and higher suitability,its suitable areas in China are mainly concentrated in the northwest,the north,the central,the north of the eastern,and the east of the southwestern.The environmental variables that have important impact on the distribution of the suitable area of C.vesuviana are the highest temperature of the warmest monthand(bio5),the precipitation of the wettest month(bio13)and the precipitation of the driest quarter(bio17).In the climate change conditions,the future suitable area of C.vesuviana will spread to the southeast.The current area of C.vesuviana is 685.76×10~4km~2 in China,In the future,the trend of its suitable areas shows a decrease in the climate conditions of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2050s,and an expansion in the climate conditions of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2070s.Except for P.solenopsis,the AUC values of the other six pests were around 0.9;meanwhile,the TSS values of the seven pests were all greater than the random probability of0,indicating that the model predictive effect is excellent.The results showed that these seven pests have strong suitability and potential hazards in China.The results of study have important scientific significance and practical value for scientifically early warning of the health status of the forests in China.At the same time,it provides an important reference for the monitoring and the comprehensive prevention of the forestry quarantine pests.